Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Maracaju vs Comercial MS

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2 2025
Maracaju Logo

Maracaju

3 - 1
FT
Comercial MS Logo

Comercial MS

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Maracaju in this Sul-Matogrossense 2 2025 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Maracaju.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Maracaju
20%
Draws
47%
Comercial MS
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Comercial MS

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Comercial MS lately — more wins on the board than Maracaju.
  • Model gives Comercial MS a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Sul-Matogrossense 2 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 93%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 46.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Maracaju Clean Sheet 14%
Comercial MS Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maracaju Comercial MS
Matches Played 21 34
Wins 6 12
Draws 8 7
Losses 7 15
Goals Scored 1.14 1.44
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.71 1.60
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 26, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense 2
Maracaju vs Comercial MS
3:1
Sep 22, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense 2
Comercial MS vs Maracaju
1:1
Feb 6, 2020 Sul-Matogrossense
Comercial MS vs Maracaju
3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maracaju 11 / 100
Comercial MS 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maracaju Comercial MS

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Comercial MS Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Comercial MS conceded in 88% of 34 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.67 goals when they meet.

Maracaju's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 21 recent games.

Maracaju has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Maracaju VS Comercial MS
1.29 Goals Scored 1.5
1.71 Goals Conceded 2.13
86% Over 1.5 100%
57% Over 2.5 75%
43% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Maracaju

(Home)
01 Nov
Clube de Regatas Aquidauana
6 : 0
Maracaju
26 Oct
Maracaju
3 : 1
Comercial MS
18 Oct
Bataguassu
3 : 1
Maracaju
11 Oct
Maracaju
3 : 0
Esporte Clube Taveiropolis
05 Oct
Sao Gabriel MS
1 : 1
Maracaju
Page 1 of 5

Comercial MS

(Away)
02 Aug
Comercial MS
2 : 0
Esporte Clube Taveiropolis
25 Jul
Comercial MS
0 : 1
Misto
18 Jul
EC Campo Grande
1 : 3
Comercial MS
11 Jul
Comercial MS
1 : 1
Uniao ABC
06 Jul
Sao Gabriel MS
1 : 3
Comercial MS
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bataguassu 10 7 2 1 27:9 23
2 Clube de Regatas Aquidauana 10 7 2 1 23:7 23
3 Maracaju 10 4 4 2 12:13 16
4 Comercial MS 10 2 4 4 12:17 10
5 Esporte Clube Taveiropolis 10 2 0 8 11:25 6
6 Sao Gabriel MS 10 1 2 7 6:20 5
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense (Main)