Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Maranhao vs ITZ Sport

Brazil Brazil

Maranhense Estádio Governador João Castelo, São Luís
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Vagalume

AI Match Summary

The Maranhense game between Maranhao and ITZ Sport finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Maranhao.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Maranhao
15%
Draws
0%
ITZ Sport
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Maranhao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Maranhao carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Maranhao a 85% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Maranhense form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Maranhao Clean Sheet 68%
ITZ Sport Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maranhao ITZ Sport
Matches Played 31 24
Wins 10 7
Draws 8 7
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 0.9 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.16 1.42
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 21, 2026 Maranhense
Maranhao vs ITZ Sport
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maranhao Compare

Top Goalscorer Vagalume
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

ITZ Sport Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maranhao 95 / 100
ITZ Sport 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maranhao ITZ Sport

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maranhao Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Difficult form: ITZ Sport registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

ITZ Sport has conceded goals in 79% of their last 24 outings.

Maranhao has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Maranhao scored in 52% of their last 31 games.

Scoring Trends

Maranhao VS -
1.13 Goals Scored 0
2.25 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
88% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Maranhao

(Home)
29 Aug
Figueirense
2 : 1
Maranhao
23 Aug
Maranhao
4 : 1
Itabaiana
15 Aug
Santa Cruz
0 : 1
Maranhao
09 Aug
Maranhao
2 : 1
Brusque
25 Jul
Ferroviaria
0 : 0
Maranhao
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ITZ Sport

(Away)
01 Feb
Sampaio Correa
6 : 0
ITZ Sport
28 Jan
ITZ Sport
0 : 2
Luminense
25 Jan
ITZ Sport
0 : 2
Tuntum
21 Jan
Maranhao
1 : 0
ITZ Sport
17 Jan
ITZ Sport
0 : 1
Imperatriz
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Moto Club 7 3 4 0 10:4 13
2 Maranhao 7 4 1 2 9:7 13
3 Sampaio Correa 7 2 5 0 13:5 11
4 IAPE 7 3 2 2 4:3 11
5 Luminense 7 3 1 3 6:6 10
6 Tuntum 7 2 3 2 8:9 9
7 Imperatriz 7 1 3 3 2:5 6
8 ITZ Sport 7 0 1 6 1:14 1
Promotion - Maranhense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Maranhense (Relegation)
Relegation - Maranhense 2 2027 (Main)