Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Maranhao vs Luminense

Brazil Brazil

Maranhense Estádio Governador João Castelo, São Luís
Our Tip

Match Events

51' Event
Vander

AI Match Summary

The Maranhense game between Maranhao and Luminense finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Maranhao.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Maranhao
20%
Draws
23%
Luminense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Maranhao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Maranhao come out ahead of Luminense on wins alone.
  • Maranhao are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24%
Maranhao Clean Sheet 68%
Luminense Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maranhao Luminense
Matches Played 43 16
Wins 15 9
Draws 11 3
Losses 17 4
Goals Scored 0.98 1.19
Goals Conceded 1.07 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2026 Maranhense
Maranhao vs Luminense
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maranhao Compare

Top Goalscorer Vander
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Luminense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maranhao 68 / 100
Luminense 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maranhao Luminense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maranhao Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maranhao has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Luminense's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Maranhao's goal record stands at 56% scoring rate across 43 recent games.

Luminense let in goals in 38% of their last 16 matches.

Scoring Trends

Maranhao VS -
1.13 Goals Scored 0
2.13 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Maranhao

(Home)
15 Aug
Santa Cruz
0 : 1
Maranhao
09 Aug
Maranhao
2 : 1
Brusque
25 Jul
Ferroviaria
0 : 0
Maranhao
12 Jul
Maranhao
2 : 1
Ypiranga FC
04 Jul
Maranhao
0 : 1
Internacional de Limeira
Page 1 of 9

Luminense

(Away)
01 Feb
Maranhao
1 : 0
Luminense
28 Jan
ITZ Sport
0 : 2
Luminense
25 Jan
Sampaio Correa
1 : 1
Luminense
22 Jan
Luminense
0 : 1
IAPE
18 Jan
Luminense
0 : 3
Moto Club
Page 1 of 4

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Moto Club 7 3 4 0 10:4 13
2 Maranhao 7 4 1 2 9:7 13
3 Sampaio Correa 7 2 5 0 13:5 11
4 IAPE 7 3 2 2 4:3 11
5 Luminense 7 3 1 3 6:6 10
6 Tuntum 7 2 3 2 8:9 9
7 Imperatriz 7 1 3 3 2:5 6
8 ITZ Sport 7 0 1 6 1:14 1
Promotion - Maranhense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Maranhense (Relegation)
Relegation - Maranhense 2 2027 (Main)