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Marathon vs Alianza FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Central American Cup Estadio Yankel Rosenthal, San Pedro Sula
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Osorio H.
Assist: Mier M.
15' Event
Messiniti N.
Assist: Rivera J.
22' Event
Ramirez D.
Assist: Argueta C.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. The second leg ended 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Marathon
35%
Draws
19%
Alianza FC
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Marathon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Marathon come out ahead of Alianza FC on wins alone.
  • Marathon are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Marathon have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Marathon, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Marathon here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Marathon Clean Sheet 68%
Alianza FC Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marathon Alianza FC
Matches Played 28 26
Wins 13 9
Draws 7 9
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 1.21 1.31
Goals Conceded 0.86 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 21, 2026 CONCACAF Central American Cup
Marathon vs Alianza FC
2:1
Aug 20, 2026 CONCACAF Central American Cup
Marathon vs Alianza FC
0:1
Aug 28, 2024 CONCACAF Central American Cup
Marathon vs Alianza FC
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marathon Compare

Top Goalscorer Messiniti N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ramirez D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Alianza FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Osorio H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marathon 50 / 100
Alianza FC 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marathon Alianza FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marathon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Marathon scored in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Alianza FC has conceded goals in 73% of their last 26 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.67 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Marathon stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Marathon VS Alianza FC
1 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Marathon

(Home)
21 Oct
Marathon
2 : 1
Alianza FC
15 Oct
Marathon
2 : 1
Olancho
11 Oct
Lobos UPNFM
0 : 0
Marathon
21 Sept
Juticalpa
3 : 2
Marathon
18 Sept
Alajuelense
3 : 1
Marathon
Page 1 of 6

Alianza FC

(Away)
21 Oct
Marathon
2 : 1
Alianza FC
17 Oct
Cacahuatique
0 : 0
Alianza FC
11 Oct
Alianza FC
2 : 2
Inter Santa Tecla
09 Oct
FAS
2 : 1
Alianza FC
04 Oct
Alianza FC
2 : 2
Luis Angel Firpo
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Alianza FC 1
Marathon 2
Saprissa 0
Luis Angel Firpo 0