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Marathon vs Esteli - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Central American Cup Estadio Yankel Rosenthal, San Pedro Sula
Marathon Logo

Marathon

3 - 0
FT
Esteli Logo

Esteli

Our Tip

Match Events

22'
Messiniti N.
25'
Casado E.
31'
Acevedo O.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-0. The second leg ended 3-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Marathon
30%
Draws
29%
Esteli
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Marathon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Esteli carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Esteli arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Marathon, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Marathon have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Marathon Clean Sheet 16%
Esteli Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marathon Esteli
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 12 15
Draws 7 7
Losses 9 7
Goals Scored 1.18 1.66
Goals Conceded 0.93 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 27, 2026 CONCACAF Central American Cup
Marathon vs Esteli
3:0
Sep 30, 2021 CONCACAF League
Esteli vs Marathon
2:1
Sep 23, 2021 CONCACAF League
Marathon vs Esteli
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marathon Compare

Top Goalscorer Farioli B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Arriaga L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Esteli Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marathon 31 / 100
Esteli 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marathon Esteli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marathon scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

Esteli let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.67 goals per match.

Marathon went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Marathon VS Esteli
2 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Marathon

(Home)
15 Oct
Marathon
2 : 1
Olancho
11 Oct
Lobos UPNFM
0 : 0
Marathon
21 Sept
Juticalpa
3 : 2
Marathon
18 Sept
Alajuelense
3 : 1
Marathon
13 Sept
Marathon
1 : 0
Olimpia
Page 1 of 6

Esteli

(Away)
18 Oct
Walter Ferreti
3 : 1
Esteli
16 Oct
Esteli
1 : 1
Jalapa
11 Oct
Matagalpa
1 : 4
Esteli
08 Oct
UNAN-Managua
1 : 0
Esteli
11 Sept
Managua FC
1 : 1
Esteli
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alajuelense 4 3 0 1 7:3 9
2 Luis Angel Firpo 4 2 1 1 7:3 7
3 Plaza Amador 4 2 0 2 10:10 6
4 Xelaju 4 1 1 2 5:7 4
5 Diriangen 4 1 0 3 5:11 3
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alianza FC 4 3 0 1 5:4 9
2 Marathon 4 2 1 1 6:1 7
3 Herediano 4 2 1 1 4:2 7
4 Esteli 4 2 0 2 5:6 6
5 Antigua 4 0 0 4 2:9 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Olimpia 4 4 0 0 9:3 12
2 Saprissa 4 3 0 1 8:4 9
3 Deportivo Mixco 4 2 0 2 6:6 6
4 Alianza 4 1 0 3 3:7 3
5 UMECIT 4 0 0 4 3:9 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cartagines 4 2 2 0 8:2 8
2 Motagua 4 2 2 0 8:2 8
3 Municipal 4 1 3 0 4:3 6
4 FAS 4 1 1 2 5:5 4
5 Verdes 4 0 0 4 1:14 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)