Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Marathon vs Estrella

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional Estadio Yankel Rosenthal, San Pedro Sula
Our Tip

Match Events

9'
Sub
Calix C. In: Avila A.
Out: Calix C.
10' Event
Messiniti N.
37' Event
Messiniti N.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Nacional game between Marathon and Estrella finished 5-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Marathon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Marathon
35%
Draws
24%
Estrella
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Marathon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Marathon come out ahead of Estrella on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Marathon's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Marathon Clean Sheet 68%
Estrella Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marathon Estrella
Matches Played 29 7
Wins 14 2
Draws 6 3
Losses 9 2
Goals Scored 1.28 1.86
Goals Conceded 0.83 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs Estrella
5:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marathon Compare

Top Goalscorer Messiniti N.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Castillo I.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Estrella Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marathon 95 / 100
Estrella 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marathon Estrella

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marathon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Estrella has conceded goals in 86% of their last 7 outings.

H2H data points to 5.00 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Marathon scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Marathon remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Marathon VS Estrella
1.5 Goals Scored 1.63
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Marathon

(Home)
18 Sept
Alajuelense
3 : 1
Marathon
13 Sept
Marathon
1 : 0
Olimpia
11 Sept
Marathon
2 : 2
Alajuelense
06 Sept
Marathon
5 : 0
Estrella
29 Aug
Genesis FC
1 : 2
Marathon
Page 1 of 6

Estrella

(Away)
12 Sept
Estrella
2 : 2
Platense
06 Sept
Marathon
5 : 0
Estrella
30 Aug
Estrella
2 : 2
Olimpia
22 Aug
Estrella
5 : 2
Juticalpa
15 Aug
Lobos UPNFM
2 : 2
Estrella
Page 1 of 2

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Marathon 7 5 2 0 12:3 17
2 Real Espana 7 4 3 0 12:4 15
3 Olimpia 7 4 2 1 15:7 14
4 Motagua 7 4 1 2 11:7 13
5 Genesis FC 7 3 1 3 10:6 10
6 Olancho 7 2 4 1 6:5 10
7 Atletico Independiente 7 2 3 2 7:7 9
8 Estrella 7 2 3 2 13:14 9
9 Lobos UPNFM 7 1 2 4 5:12 5
10 Platense 7 1 2 4 6:16 5
11 CD Choloma 7 1 1 5 4:8 4
12 Juticalpa 7 1 0 6 5:17 3
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Relegation - Liga Nacional (Relegation)