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Marathon vs Estrella - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional Estadio Yankel Rosenthal, San Pedro Sula
Our Tip

Match Events

9'
Sub
Calix C. In: Avila A.
Out: Calix C.
10' Event
Messiniti N.
37' Event
Messiniti N.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Nacional game between Marathon and Estrella finished 5-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Marathon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Marathon
30%
Draws
33%
Estrella
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Marathon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Marathon come out ahead of Estrella on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Marathon Clean Sheet 17%
Estrella Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marathon Estrella
Matches Played 29 12
Wins 11 4
Draws 9 4
Losses 9 4
Goals Scored 1.17 1.75
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs Estrella
5:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marathon Compare

Top Goalscorer Messiniti N.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Castillo I.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Estrella Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marathon 36 / 100
Estrella 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marathon Estrella

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Estrella Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Estrella has conceded goals in 92% of their last 12 outings.

H2H data points to 5.00 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Marathon scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Marathon remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Marathon VS Estrella
1.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Marathon

(Home)
01 Nov
Motagua
2 : 0
Marathon
28 Oct
Alianza FC
0 : 0
Marathon
25 Oct
Atletico Independiente
2 : 2
Marathon
21 Oct
Marathon
2 : 1
Alianza FC
15 Oct
Marathon
2 : 1
Olancho
Page 1 of 6

Estrella

(Away)
31 Oct
Estrella
3 : 1
Atletico Independiente
24 Oct
Olancho
3 : 3
Estrella
18 Oct
Genesis FC
1 : 2
Estrella
11 Oct
Estrella
0 : 1
Real Espana
19 Sept
CD Choloma
2 : 0
Estrella
Page 1 of 3

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Olimpia 12 9 2 1 26:8 29
2 Real Espana 12 8 3 1 22:10 27
3 Motagua 12 8 1 3 19:9 25
4 Marathon 12 6 4 2 18:11 22
5 Olancho 12 3 7 2 15:12 16
6 Estrella 12 4 4 4 21:22 16
7 Lobos UPNFM 12 4 3 5 15:16 15
8 CD Choloma 12 4 1 7 12:15 13
9 Genesis FC 12 3 2 7 15:16 11
10 Atletico Independiente 12 2 5 5 11:21 11
11 Platense 12 2 2 8 12:29 8
12 Juticalpa 12 2 0 10 11:28 6
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Relegation - Liga Nacional (Relegation)