Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Marathon vs Olimpia

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Yankel Rosenthal, San Pedro Sula
Marathon Logo

Marathon

1 - 0
FT
Olimpia Logo

Olimpia

Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Sub
Figueroa H. In: Bodden K.
Out: Figueroa H.
41' Event
Castillo R.
45'
Martinez Hernandez F. E.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga Nacional 2025/2026 game between Marathon and Olimpia finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Marathon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Marathon
30%
Draws
47%
Olimpia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Olimpia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Olimpia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Marathon Clean Sheet 20%
Olimpia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marathon Olimpia
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 16
Draws 9 5
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 0.5 1.63
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs Olimpia
1:0
May 7, 2026 Liga Nacional
Olimpia vs Marathon
2:0
Apr 23, 2026 Liga Nacional
Olimpia vs Marathon
2:1
Mar 1, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs Olimpia
2:1
Jan 8, 2026 Liga Nacional
Olimpia vs Marathon
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marathon Compare

Top Goalscorer Castillo R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Olimpia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marathon 36 / 100
Olimpia 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marathon Olimpia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick OLI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marathon found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (28 games).

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Marathon stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Olimpia let in goals in 59% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Marathon VS Olimpia
0.5 Goals Scored 1.63
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
38% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Marathon

(Home)
04 Aug
Marathon
1 : 0
Atletico Independiente
31 Jul
Herediano
0 : 0
Marathon
24 May
Motagua
1 : 0
Marathon
22 May
Marathon
1 : 1
Motagua
19 May
Real Espana
1 : 1
Marathon
Page 1 of 6

Olimpia

(Away)
06 Aug
UMECIT
1 : 2
Olimpia
03 Aug
Olimpia
2 : 0
Lobos UPNFM
29 Jul
Olimpia
2 : 0
Deportivo Mixco
24 Jul
Olimpia
1 : 0
Motagua
11 Jul
Houston Dynamo
3 : 0
Olimpia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Marathon 4 2 1 1 3:3 7
2 Olimpia 4 2 0 2 6:6 6
3 Real Espana 4 1 1 2 6:6 4
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Motagua 4 2 1 1 6:4 7
2 Genesis FC 4 1 2 1 6:5 5
3 Olancho 4 1 1 2 4:7 4
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)