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Marathon vs Real Espana - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional Estadio Yankel Rosenthal, San Pedro Sula
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Messiniti N.
38'
Agurcia S.
42'
Aparicio D.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Liga Nacional matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Marathon
20%
Draws
48%
Real Espana
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Real Espana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Real Espana have won more games recently than Marathon.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Liga Nacional form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Marathon Clean Sheet 16%
Real Espana Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marathon Real Espana
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 13 16
Draws 9 8
Losses 9 5
Goals Scored 1.19 1.83
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 23, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs Real Espana
1:1
May 19, 2026 Liga Nacional
Real Espana vs Marathon
1:1
May 3, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs Real Espana
1:0
Apr 3, 2026 Liga Nacional
Real Espana vs Marathon
2:0
Feb 8, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs Real Espana
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marathon Compare

Top Goalscorer Messiniti N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Real Espana Compare

Top Goalscorer Vuelto D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marathon 31 / 100
Real Espana 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marathon Real Espana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Real Espana Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marathon found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (31 games).

Defensive concern: Real Espana conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Marathon has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Marathon VS Real Espana
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Marathon

(Home)
01 Nov
Motagua
2 : 0
Marathon
28 Oct
Alianza FC
0 : 0
Marathon
25 Oct
Atletico Independiente
2 : 2
Marathon
21 Oct
Marathon
2 : 1
Alianza FC
15 Oct
Marathon
2 : 1
Olancho
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Real Espana

(Away)
31 Oct
Real Espana
3 : 1
Juticalpa
24 Oct
Real Espana
4 : 3
Platense
16 Oct
Olimpia
2 : 1
Real Espana
11 Oct
Estrella
0 : 1
Real Espana
20 Sept
Real Espana
1 : 0
Motagua
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Olimpia 12 9 2 1 26:8 29
2 Real Espana 12 8 3 1 22:10 27
3 Motagua 12 8 1 3 19:9 25
4 Marathon 12 6 4 2 18:11 22
5 Olancho 12 3 7 2 15:12 16
6 Estrella 12 4 4 4 21:22 16
7 Lobos UPNFM 12 4 3 5 15:16 15
8 CD Choloma 12 4 1 7 12:15 13
9 Genesis FC 12 3 2 7 15:16 11
10 Atletico Independiente 12 2 5 5 11:21 11
11 Platense 12 2 2 8 12:29 8
12 Juticalpa 12 2 0 10 11:28 6
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Relegation - Liga Nacional (Relegation)