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Marbelli vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Marbelli play Ciudad de Torredonjimeno in the Tercera RFEF - Group 9. It looks like a close match. Recently, Marbelli averaged 1 goals scored and 0.77 conceded. Ciudad de Torredonjimeno averaged 1.07 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Marbelli won 2, Ciudad de Torredonjimeno won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 10, 2026 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.94 for Marbelli and 0.75 for Ciudad de Torredonjimeno. This points to a Marbelli double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Marbelli
26%
Draws
35%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Marbelli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Marbelli picked up more points recently compared to Ciudad de Torredonjimeno.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.94 vs 0.75 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 34%
Over 3.5 Goals 20%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39%
Marbelli Clean Sheet 27%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 57%
Second Half Goal 60%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marbelli Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 12
Draws 8 8
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1 1.07
Goals Conceded 0.77 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno vs Marbelli
0:2
Jan 11, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Marbelli vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
3:0
Feb 16, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Marbelli vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
2:2
Oct 6, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno vs Marbelli
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marbelli Compare

Top Goalscorer Carmona K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mena Mugica J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marbelli 41 / 100
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marbelli Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Marbelli or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +21.4%
3.57
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Marbelli attacking → ← attacking Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marbelli scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.25 goals.

Marbelli went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

44 Points in last 5 44
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Mijas Las Lagunas34199646:2466
2Motril341811555:2965
3Torre del Mar341413737:2655
4Arenas Armilla341591038:2954
5Churriana de la Vega3414101032:4052
6Marbelli341491136:2851
7Ciudad de Torredonjimeno3413111039:3850
8UD San Pedro3413101139:3749
9Atletico de Porcuna341441641:3946
10Huetor Vega341291343:4245
11Granada CF B3410141049:4744
12CD Alhaurino3411101341:4143
13Melilla B349121330:3239
14Mancha349101530:3837
15Huetor Tajar349101540:4437
16Martos349101532:4837
17CD Torreperogil34961924:4533
18El Palo34691928:5327