Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera Division - Group 18 2009/2010

Piedrabuena

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Marchamalo play Piedrabuena in the Tercera Division - Group 18 2009/2010. Marchamalo are favorites here. Recently, Marchamalo averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. Piedrabuena averaged 0.83 goals scored and 2.4 conceded. In past meetings, Marchamalo won 4, Piedrabuena won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jan 9, 2011 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.35 for Marchamalo and 1.13 for Piedrabuena. This points to a Marchamalo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%

Marchamalo

15%

Draws

20%

Piedrabuena

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Marchamalo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence

Marchamalo picked up more points recently compared to Piedrabuena.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.35 vs 1.13 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 59%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 77%

Over 2.5 Goals 59%

Over 3.5 Goals 35%

Over 4.5 Goals 18%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%

Marchamalo Clean Sheet 21%

Piedrabuena Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 69%

Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Marchamalo	Piedrabuena
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	10	3
Draws	6	6
Losses	15	21
Goals Scored	1.1	0.83
Goals Conceded	1.29	2.4

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 9, 2011 Tercera RFEF - Group 18

Marchamalo vs Piedrabuena

Possession: 50% - 56% Cards: 4 - 1

2:0

Aug 28, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 18

Piedrabuena vs Marchamalo

Possession: 53% - 46% Cards: 2 - 1

2:3

Apr 18, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 18

Marchamalo vs Piedrabuena

Possession: 55% - 42% Cards: 3 - 4

3:0

Dec 13, 2009 Tercera RFEF - Group 18

Piedrabuena vs Marchamalo

Possession: 49% - 46% Cards: 1 - 2

2:1

Mar 8, 2009 Tercera RFEF - Group 18

Piedrabuena vs Marchamalo

Possession: 51% - 54% Cards: 3 - 3

1:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marchamalo 63 / 100

Piedrabuena 20 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Marchamalo Piedrabuena

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marchamalo Win (1)

Secondary Pick Marchamalo & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +13.7%

1.75

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11.5%

1.89

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Marchamalo attacking → ← attacking Piedrabuena

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marchamalo scored in 65% of their last 31 games.

Piedrabuena let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Marchamalo went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Piedrabuena lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

36 Points in last 5 15

1.50 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	La Roda	38	23	8	7	71:32	77
2	Illescas	38	18	14	6	58:40	68
3	Azuqueca	38	18	11	9	71:52	65
4	CF Talavera	38	17	11	10	46:30	62
5	Albacete B	38	17	8	13	53:42	59
6	Villarrobledo	38	15	13	10	47:41	58
7	Torrijos	38	16	7	15	46:48	55
8	Marchamalo	38	15	6	17	50:50	51
9	CD Union Criptanense	38	13	11	14	43:50	50
10	CD Carranque	38	13	10	15	50:53	49
11	UD Almansa	38	12	13	13	37:41	49
12	Hellin Deportivo	38	12	12	14	38:39	48
13	La Gineta	38	12	12	14	40:46	48
14	Piedrabuena	38	12	12	14	46:59	48
15	Quintanar del Rey	38	13	8	17	48:57	47
16	Socuellamos	38	12	11	15	42:59	47
17	Tomelloso	38	11	12	15	40:41	45
18	Alcazar	38	11	10	17	43:49	43
19	Mora CF	38	12	5	21	39:50	41
20	Daimiel	38	7	8	23	29:58	29