Sport Picks

Brazil

Catarinense Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz

Match Events

Ze Carlos

11'

Ruan

25'

Arouca

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Marcilio Dias host Carlos Renaux in the Catarinense. Little to choose between these two on current form. Recent numbers: Marcilio Dias at 0.88 goals for, 0.5 against; Carlos Renaux at 2 for, 1.75 against. Past meetings favor Marcilio Dias slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Feb 26, 2026, ending 2:1. xG projections (1.31 - 1.25) back Marcilio Dias to edge this. Marcilio Dias in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

Marcilio Dias

39%

Draws

30%

Carlos Renaux

Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence

Marcilio Dias has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Carlos Renaux.
Model projects a tightly contested fixture with a 39% draw probability.
League standings and seasonal metrics in Catarinense provide steady trend data.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 69%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 6%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%

Marcilio Dias Clean Sheet 19%

Carlos Renaux Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Marcilio Dias	Carlos Renaux
Matches Played	32	28
Wins	14	10
Draws	9	9
Losses	9	9
Goals Scored	0.88	2
Goals Conceded	0.5	1.75
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.50	1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 26, 2026 Catarinense

Carlos Renaux vs Marcilio Dias

Possession: 43% - 42% Cards: 2 - 2

2:1

Feb 9, 2026 Catarinense

Marcilio Dias vs Carlos Renaux

Possession: 54% - 42% Cards: 3 - 3

1:1

Jan 25, 2026 Catarinense

Carlos Renaux vs Marcilio Dias

Possession: 41% - 52% Cards: 1 - 1

2:4

Oct 28, 2022 Copa Santa Catarina

Marcilio Dias vs Carlos Renaux

Possession: 52% - 43% Cards: 1 - 3

0:2

Oct 23, 2022 Copa Santa Catarina

Carlos Renaux vs Marcilio Dias

Possession: 51% - 46% Cards: 1 - 0

1:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marcilio Dias Compare

Top Goalscorer Ze Carlos

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Carlos Renaux Compare

Top Goalscorer Thiago Tinoco

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.82

Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marcilio Dias 32 / 100

Carlos Renaux 41 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Marcilio Dias Carlos Renaux

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAR Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marcilio Dias scored in 66% of their last 32 games.

Carlos Renaux let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Marcilio Dias went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Carlos Renaux lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Marcilio Dias VS Carlos Renaux

0.88 Goals Scored 2

0.5 Goals Conceded 1.75

38% Over 1.5 100%

25% Over 2.5 100%

0% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Marcilio Dias	6	4	1	1	10:5	13
2	Carlos Renaux	6	4	1	1	10:8	13
3	Figueirense	6	2	0	4	6:7	7
4	Joinville	6	1	0	5	6:12	3