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Marek vs Nesebar - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Vtora liga Stadion Bonchuk, Dupnitsa
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Match Events

17'
Petkov M.
23'
Ganchev N.
23'
Zegai M.

AI Match Summary

The Vtora liga game between Marek and Nesebar finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Marek.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Marek
30%
Draws
31%
Nesebar
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Marek

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Nesebar carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Marek's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Vtora liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Marek have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Marek Clean Sheet 68%
Nesebar Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marek Nesebar
Matches Played 27 30
Wins 13 18
Draws 6 7
Losses 8 5
Goals Scored 1.11 2.7
Goals Conceded 0.85 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 2, 2026 Vtora liga
Marek vs Nesebar
1:0
May 17, 2025 Vtora liga
Marek vs Nesebar
1:0
Nov 23, 2024 Vtora liga
Nesebar vs Marek
0:2
Oct 21, 2009 Bulgarian Cup
Marek vs Nesebar
4:0
May 15, 2005 efbet League
Marek vs Nesebar
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marek Compare

Top Goalscorer Ganchev N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Nesebar Compare

Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marek 68 / 100
Nesebar 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marek Nesebar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marek Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nesebar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Marek went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Marek found the back of the net in 59% of recent matches (27 games).

Scoring Trends

Marek VS Nesebar
1.13 Goals Scored 2
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Marek

(Home)
10 Oct
Marek
3 : 2
Beroe
04 Oct
Chavdar Troyan
0 : 4
Marek
26 Sept
Gorna
0 : 0
Marek
20 Sept
Marek
1 : 3
Rilski Sportist
13 Sept
Marek
3 : 0
Pirin Blagoevgrad
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Nesebar

(Away)
10 Oct
Nesebar
0 : 0
CSKA Sofia II
04 Oct
Rodopa Smolyan
1 : 3
Nesebar
27 Sept
Vihren
2 : 0
Nesebar
20 Sept
Nesebar
4 : 3
Beroe
15 Sept
Gorna
1 : 1
Nesebar
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vihren 12 7 3 2 25:12 24
2 CSKA Sofia II 11 7 2 2 23:9 23
3 Fratria 12 6 4 2 17:10 22
4 Chernomorets 1919 11 6 3 2 18:8 21
5 Yantra Gabrovo 12 6 1 5 13:11 19
6 Beroe 11 5 3 3 16:12 18
7 Rilski Sportist 11 5 3 3 14:10 18
8 Etar 11 5 2 4 19:19 17
9 Nesebar 11 5 2 4 20:17 17
10 Gorna 11 4 4 3 9:10 16
11 Hebar 11 4 2 5 24:19 14
12 Marek 11 4 2 5 11:12 14
13 Spartak Pleven 11 4 1 6 11:22 13
14 Ludogorets II 10 3 3 4 9:10 12
15 Montana 11 3 2 6 13:23 11
16 Svoge 11 2 4 5 7:10 10
17 Dobrudzha 11 2 3 6 12:18 9
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 11 0 0 11 4:33 0
Promotion - efbet League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - efbet League (Relegation)
Relegation - Vtora liga (Relegation)