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Maribor vs Aluminij

Slovenia Slovenia

Prva liga Ljudski vrt, Maribor
Sat, Sep 19, 2026
VS
06:15 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Maribor host Aluminij in the Prva liga. Little to choose between these two on current form. Aluminij have shipped 1.34 goals a game lately, while Maribor have conceded 1.04 and scored 1.54. Head-to-head, Maribor have won 2 to Aluminij's 1, with 2 draws. They last met on Jul 19, 2026, ending 0:0. Model xG sits at 1.69 vs 1.00, favoring Maribor. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Maribor
30%
Draws
27%
Aluminij
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Maribor

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Maribor come out ahead of Aluminij on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Maribor's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Prva liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Maribor Clean Sheet 20%
Aluminij Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maribor Aluminij
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 6
Draws 11 9
Losses 6 14
Goals Scored 1.54 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.04 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 19, 2026 Prva liga
Aluminij vs Maribor
0:0
May 23, 2026 Prva liga
Maribor vs Aluminij
3:0
Mar 20, 2026 Prva liga
Aluminij vs Maribor
1:1
Dec 6, 2025 Prva liga
Maribor vs Aluminij
2:3
Sep 19, 2025 Prva liga
Aluminij vs Maribor
2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maribor 40 / 100
Aluminij 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maribor Aluminij

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maribor Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maribor scored in 82% of their last 28 games.

Solid form: Maribor remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Defensive concern: Aluminij conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Maribor VS Aluminij
1.88 Goals Scored 1.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Maribor

(Home)
13 Sept
Radomlje
0 : 3
Maribor
06 Sept
Maribor
1 : 1
Mura
30 Aug
Nafta
2 : 3
Maribor
23 Aug
Maribor
3 : 1
Bravo
15 Aug
O. Ljubljana
1 : 1
Maribor
Page 1 of 6

Aluminij

(Away)
13 Sept
Mura
1 : 6
Aluminij
05 Sept
Aluminij
0 : 0
Bravo
02 Sept
Aluminij
0 : 2
Celje
28 Aug
Aluminij
0 : 1
Koper
21 Aug
Aluminij
4 : 2
Grosuplje
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Maribor 9 5 4 0 17:6 19
2 Bravo 9 4 3 2 10:9 15
3 Koper 9 4 3 2 9:8 15
4 O. Ljubljana 9 4 2 3 9:6 14
5 Nafta 9 4 1 4 17:14 13
6 Aluminij 9 3 3 3 14:9 12
7 Celje 8 3 2 3 11:11 11
8 Mura 9 2 2 5 10:21 8
9 Grosuplje 9 2 2 5 12:17 8
10 Radomlje 8 1 2 5 8:16 5
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva liga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. SNL 2027/2028 (Main)