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Maribor vs Celje - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Slovenia Slovenia

Prva liga Ljudski vrt, Maribor
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Maribor host Celje in the Prva liga. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Maribor at 1.5 goals for, 1.14 against; Celje at 1.69 for, 1.21 against. Head-to-head, Maribor have won 0 to Celje's 3, with 2 draws. They last met on Aug 1, 2026, ending 1:1. Model xG sits at 1.56 vs 1.06, favoring Celje. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Maribor
35%
Draws
20%
Celje
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Maribor

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Celje come out ahead of Maribor on wins alone.
  • 45% — that's where the model lands on Maribor taking it.
  • Regular Prva liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Maribor Clean Sheet 20%
Celje Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maribor Celje
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 9 13
Draws 13 7
Losses 6 9
Goals Scored 1.5 1.69
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Prva liga
Celje vs Maribor
1:1
Apr 4, 2026 Prva liga
Celje vs Maribor
1:0
Feb 1, 2026 Prva liga
Maribor vs Celje
3:3
Sep 27, 2025 Prva liga
Celje vs Maribor
3:0
Jul 20, 2025 Prva liga
Maribor vs Celje
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maribor 85 / 100
Celje 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maribor Celje

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maribor Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maribor found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).

Maribor went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Celje has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Maribor VS Celje
1.75 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Maribor

(Home)
28 Sept
Maribor
1 : 1
HNK Gorica
19 Sept
Maribor
2 : 2
Aluminij
13 Sept
Radomlje
0 : 3
Maribor
06 Sept
Maribor
1 : 1
Mura
30 Aug
Nafta
2 : 3
Maribor
Page 1 of 6

Celje

(Away)
20 Sept
Mura
0 : 0
Celje
16 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
2 : 0
Celje
12 Sept
Bravo
2 : 1
Celje
06 Sept
Celje
0 : 1
Koper
02 Sept
Aluminij
0 : 2
Celje
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Maribor 10 5 5 0 19:8 20
2 Koper 10 5 3 2 11:8 18
3 Bravo 10 5 3 2 12:10 18
4 O. Ljubljana 10 4 2 4 10:8 14
5 Aluminij 10 3 4 3 16:11 13
6 Nafta 10 4 1 5 17:16 13
7 Celje 9 3 3 3 11:11 12
8 Grosuplje 10 3 2 5 14:18 11
9 Mura 10 2 3 5 10:21 9
10 Radomlje 9 1 2 6 9:18 5
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva liga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. SNL 2027/2028 (Main)