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Maribor vs Grosuplje

Slovenia Slovenia

Prva liga Ljudski vrt, Maribor
Sat, Jul 25, 2026
VS
06:15 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Maribor host Grosuplje in the Prva liga. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Maribor have averaged 1.13 scored and 1.25 conceded recently, against Grosuplje's 0.63 scored and 2 conceded. Head-to-head, Maribor have won 0 to Grosuplje's 1, with 0 draws. They last met on Oct 29, 2025, ending 2:1. xG projections (1.56 - 0.94) back Grosuplje to edge this. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Maribor
17%
Draws
13%
Grosuplje
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Maribor

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Grosuplje come out ahead of Maribor on wins alone.
  • Model gives Maribor a 70% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Prva liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Maribor Clean Sheet 20%
Grosuplje Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maribor Grosuplje
Matches Played 24 27
Wins 7 14
Draws 8 4
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.13 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.25 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 29, 2025 Slovenian Cup
Grosuplje vs Maribor
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maribor 67 / 100
Grosuplje 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maribor Grosuplje

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maribor found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (24 games).

Grosuplje let in goals in 74% of their last 27 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Maribor remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Maribor VS Grosuplje
1.13 Goals Scored 0.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Maribor

(Home)
10 Jul
Maribor
1 : 1
Charlton
04 Jul
Maribor
1 : 1
Zeleznicar Pancevo
01 Jul
CSKA 1948 Sofia
3 : 3
Maribor
23 May
Maribor
3 : 0
Aluminij
17 May
Mura
2 : 1
Maribor
Page 1 of 5

Grosuplje

(Away)
10 Jul
Grosuplje
1 : 2
Tabor Sezana
08 Jul
Grosuplje
0 : 1
Vrhnika
02 Jul
Grosuplje
0 : 9
Din. Zagreb
30 Jun
Grosuplje
0 : 3
Rijeka
24 Jun
Grosuplje
1 : 0
Corvinul Hunedoara
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Nafta00000:00
2Koper00000:00
3Celje00000:00
4Maribor00000:00
5Aluminij00000:00
6Mura00000:00
7O. Ljubljana00000:00
8Grosuplje00000:00
9Radomlje00000:00
10Bravo00000:00
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva liga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. SNL 2027/2028 (Main)