Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Maribor vs Grosuplje

Slovenia Slovenia

Prva liga Ljudski vrt, Maribor
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Mbondo B.
Assist: Repas Z.
32'
Maher R.
62'
Cipot T.

AI Match Summary

The Prva liga game between Maribor and Grosuplje finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Maribor.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Maribor
20%
Draws
28%
Grosuplje
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Maribor

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Grosuplje come out ahead of Maribor on wins alone.
  • Model gives Maribor a 52% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Prva liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Maribor Clean Sheet 16%
Grosuplje Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maribor Grosuplje
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 10 13
Draws 12 3
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 1.54 1.71
Goals Conceded 1.11 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 25, 2026 Prva liga
Maribor vs Grosuplje
3:0
Oct 29, 2025 Slovenian Cup
Grosuplje vs Maribor
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maribor Compare

Top Goalscorer Mbondo B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tshipamba I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Grosuplje Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maribor 84 / 100
Grosuplje 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maribor Grosuplje

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maribor Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maribor found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).

Maribor went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Grosuplje has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Maribor VS Grosuplje
1.88 Goals Scored 2
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.88
100% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Maribor

(Home)
19 Sept
Maribor
2 : 2
Aluminij
13 Sept
Radomlje
0 : 3
Maribor
06 Sept
Maribor
1 : 1
Mura
30 Aug
Nafta
2 : 3
Maribor
23 Aug
Maribor
3 : 1
Bravo
Page 1 of 6

Grosuplje

(Away)
20 Sept
Grosuplje
2 : 1
Radomlje
11 Sept
Grosuplje
1 : 2
Nafta
05 Sept
O. Ljubljana
3 : 0
Grosuplje
30 Aug
Grosuplje
4 : 1
Celje
21 Aug
Aluminij
4 : 2
Grosuplje
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Maribor 10 5 5 0 19:8 20
2 Koper 10 5 3 2 11:8 18
3 Bravo 10 5 3 2 12:10 18
4 O. Ljubljana 10 4 2 4 10:8 14
5 Aluminij 10 3 4 3 16:11 13
6 Nafta 10 4 1 5 17:16 13
7 Celje 9 3 3 3 11:11 12
8 Grosuplje 10 3 2 5 14:18 11
9 Mura 10 2 3 5 10:21 9
10 Radomlje 9 1 2 6 9:18 5
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva liga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. SNL 2027/2028 (Main)