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Maribor vs Nafta - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Slovenia Slovenia

Prva liga Ljudski vrt, Maribor
Maribor Logo

Maribor

Sat, Nov 21, 2026
VS
05:00 PM
Nafta Logo

Nafta

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Maribor host Nafta in the Prva liga. This one's hard to separate. Maribor have averaged 1.5 scored and 1.18 conceded recently, against Nafta's 1.54 scored and 1.21 conceded. Head-to-head, Maribor have won 3 to Nafta's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Aug 30, 2026, ending 2:3. xG projections (1.75 - 1.13) back Nafta to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Maribor
30%
Draws
35%
Nafta
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Nafta lately — more wins on the board than Maribor.
  • Model gives Maribor a 35% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Prva liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Maribor Clean Sheet 20%
Nafta Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maribor Nafta
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 9 15
Draws 13 4
Losses 6 9
Goals Scored 1.5 1.54
Goals Conceded 1.18 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Prva liga
Nafta vs Maribor
2:3
May 25, 2025 Prva liga
Maribor vs Nafta
0:1
Apr 16, 2025 Prva liga
Nafta vs Maribor
1:1
Dec 8, 2024 Prva liga
Maribor vs Nafta
4:0
Sep 22, 2024 Prva liga
Nafta vs Maribor
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maribor 40 / 100
Nafta 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maribor Nafta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maribor Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maribor found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).

Maribor has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Nafta let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Maribor VS Nafta
2 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Maribor

(Home)
11 Oct
Grosuplje
1 : 2
Maribor
28 Sept
Maribor
1 : 1
HNK Gorica
19 Sept
Maribor
2 : 2
Aluminij
13 Sept
Radomlje
0 : 3
Maribor
06 Sept
Maribor
1 : 1
Mura
Page 1 of 6

Nafta

(Away)
11 Oct
Nafta
1 : 0
Bravo
19 Sept
Koper
2 : 0
Nafta
11 Sept
Grosuplje
1 : 2
Nafta
04 Sept
Nafta
3 : 1
Radomlje
30 Aug
Nafta
2 : 3
Maribor
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Maribor 11 6 5 0 21:9 23
2 Koper 11 5 4 2 14:11 19
3 Bravo 11 5 3 3 12:11 18
4 O. Ljubljana 12 5 3 4 14:11 18
5 Nafta 11 5 1 5 18:16 16
6 Celje 10 4 3 3 12:11 15
7 Aluminij 12 3 4 5 16:13 13
8 Grosuplje 11 3 2 6 15:20 11
9 Mura 11 2 4 5 13:24 10
10 Radomlje 10 1 3 6 12:21 6
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva liga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. SNL 2027/2028 (Main)