Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Marica vs Perolas Negras

Brazil Brazil

Copa Rio
Marica Logo

Marica

3 - 0
FT
Perolas Negras Logo

Perolas Negras

Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Pablo Thomaz
(Penalty)
53' Event
Pablo Thomaz
90' Event
Luiz H.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-0. This leg finished 3-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Marica
30%
Draws
33%
Perolas Negras
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Marica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Marica have won more games recently than Perolas Negras.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Marica have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Marica, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Marica here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Marica Clean Sheet 68%
Perolas Negras Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marica Perolas Negras
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 11
Draws 8 7
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 22, 2026 Copa Rio
Marica vs Perolas Negras
3:0
Jul 15, 2026 Copa Rio
Perolas Negras vs Marica
0:0
Jul 4, 2026 Carioca 2
Marica vs Perolas Negras
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marica Compare

Top Goalscorer Pablo Thomaz
1 Goals
Assists Leader Luiz H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Perolas Negras Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marica 41 / 100
Perolas Negras 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marica Perolas Negras

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marica Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marica found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Perolas Negras's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.67 goals.

Marica has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Marica VS Perolas Negras
1 Goals Scored 1.88
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Marica

(Home)
12 Aug
Boavista
3 : 0
Marica
05 Aug
Marica
1 : 0
Boavista
22 Jul
Marica
3 : 0
Perolas Negras
18 Jul
Marica
1 : 1
Resende
15 Jul
Perolas Negras
0 : 0
Marica
Page 1 of 6

Perolas Negras

(Away)
22 Jul
Marica
3 : 0
Perolas Negras
15 Jul
Perolas Negras
0 : 0
Marica
04 Jul
Marica
2 : 0
Perolas Negras
27 Jun
Cabofriense
1 : 2
Perolas Negras
23 Jun
Perolas Negras
5 : 1
Santa Cruz RJ
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Americano 2
Macae 1
TBD -
Portuguesa RJ -
Cabofriense 1
Bonsucesso 3
TBD -
Madureira -
Perolas Negras 10
Santa Cruz RJ 1
TBD -
Marica -
CEAC/Araruama 2
Sao Cristovao 1
TBD -
Boavista -
Olaria 6
Duque de Caxias 0
TBD -
Bangu -
America RJ -
Goytacaz -
TBD -
Nova Iguacu -
Sao Goncalo 3
Serrano FC 2
TBD -
Volta Redonda -
Resende 11
Belford Roxo 2
TBD -
Sampaio Correa FE -
1/8-finals
Americano 1
Portuguesa RJ 2
Bonsucesso 3
Madureira 4
Perolas Negras 0
Marica 3
CEAC/Araruama 0
Boavista 5
Olaria 3
Bangu 1
America RJ 1
Nova Iguacu 2
Sao Goncalo 2
Volta Redonda 1
Resende 0
Sampaio Correa FE 3
Quarter-finals
Portuguesa RJ 1
Madureira 2
Marica 1
Boavista 3
Olaria 0
Nova Iguacu 1
Sao Goncalo 0
Sampaio Correa FE 1
Semi-finals
Madureira 0
Boavista 2
Nova Iguacu 3
Sampaio Correa FE 2
Final
Boavista 3
Nova Iguacu 1
Madureira 1
Sampaio Correa FE 3