Sport Picks

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Marica vs Perolas Negras

Brazil Brazil

Carioca 2
Our Tip

Match Events

66' Event
Pablo Thomaz
90' Event
Bere

AI Match Summary

The Carioca 2 game between Marica and Perolas Negras finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Marica.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Marica
39%
Draws
30%
Perolas Negras
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Marica carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Marica have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Marica Clean Sheet 17%
Perolas Negras Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marica Perolas Negras
Matches Played 36 30
Wins 15 11
Draws 8 7
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 1 2
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 22, 2026 Copa Rio
Marica vs Perolas Negras
3:0
Jul 15, 2026 Copa Rio
Perolas Negras vs Marica
0:0
Jul 4, 2026 Carioca 2
Marica vs Perolas Negras
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marica Compare

Top Goalscorer Pablo Thomaz
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bere
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Perolas Negras Compare

Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marica 31 / 100
Perolas Negras 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marica Perolas Negras

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PER Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Marica scored in 72% of their last 36 outings.

Perolas Negras has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.67 goals when they meet.

Marica went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Marica VS Perolas Negras
1 Goals Scored 2
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Marica

(Home)
22 Jul
Marica
3 : 0
Perolas Negras
18 Jul
Marica
1 : 1
Resende
15 Jul
Perolas Negras
0 : 0
Marica
11 Jul
Resende
1 : 0
Marica
04 Jul
Marica
2 : 0
Perolas Negras
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Perolas Negras

(Away)
22 Jul
Marica
3 : 0
Perolas Negras
15 Jul
Perolas Negras
0 : 0
Marica
04 Jul
Marica
2 : 0
Perolas Negras
27 Jun
Cabofriense
1 : 2
Perolas Negras
23 Jun
Perolas Negras
5 : 1
Santa Cruz RJ
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Americano1181218:925
2Marica1173111:724
3Resende1154216:919
4America RJ1151518:1416
5Perolas Negras1151511:1516
6Sao Goncalo1142511:1014
7Bonsucesso1142510:1114
8Olaria1134411:1113
9Cabofriense1133512:1312
10CEAC/Araruama1132611:1511
11Serrano FC1125410:1811
12Audax RJ1130810:179
Promotion - Carioca 2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B1 (Main)