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Mariehamn vs FCK Salamat

Finland Finland

Kakkonen South 2003
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mariehamn play FCK Salamat in the Kakkonen South 2003. It looks like a close match. Recently, Mariehamn averaged 1.28 goals scored and 1.28 conceded. FCK Salamat averaged 1.47 goals scored and 2.33 conceded. In past meetings, Mariehamn won 1, FCK Salamat won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Aug 14, 2003 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.42 for Mariehamn and 1.19 for FCK Salamat. This points to a Mariehamn double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Mariehamn
28%
Draws
28%
FCK Salamat
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Mariehamn

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Mariehamn picked up more points recently compared to FCK Salamat.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.42 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 56%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 56%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
Mariehamn Clean Sheet 20%
FCK Salamat Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 72%
Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mariehamn FCK Salamat
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 5
Draws 8 8
Losses 12 17
Goals Scored 1.28 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.28 2.33

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 14, 2003 Kakkonen South
Mariehamn vs FCK Salamat
2:1
Jun 1, 2003 Kakkonen South
FCK Salamat vs Mariehamn
4:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mariehamn 44 / 100
FCK Salamat 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mariehamn FCK Salamat

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Mariehamn or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +22.3%
2.78
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12%
2.00
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mariehamn attacking → ← attacking FCK Salamat

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mariehamn scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

FCK Salamat let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Mariehamn went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

FCK Salamat lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

35 Points in last 5 23
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1PK-3522127338:2143
2Mariehamn22115637:2538
3Atlantis22114728:2437
4Espoo22105742:3635
5FCK Salamat2296745:3233
6KaPa2295836:2932
7Gnistan22711434:3132
8FC Kontu2287734:3631
9Hyvinkaan Palloseura (HyPS)22561130:3721
10Kiffen2249918:3721
11Vantaa22541319:3319
12FC Futura22451328:4817