Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mariehamn vs Gnistan

Finland Finland

Veikkausliiga Wiklöf Holding Arena, Mariehamn
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Costa M.
Assist: Latonen J.
28' Event
Latonen J.
Assist: Ylatupa S.
46'
Sub
Lindgren P. In: Pearce L.
Out: Lindgren P.

AI Match Summary

Gnistan in this Veikkausliiga matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gnistan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Mariehamn
20%
Draws
38%
Gnistan
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mariehamn

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Gnistan lately — more wins on the board than Mariehamn.
  • Model gives Mariehamn a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Veikkausliiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Gnistan have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Mariehamn Clean Sheet 10%
Gnistan Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mariehamn Gnistan
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 11
Draws 6 8
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 1.07 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.72 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 11, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Gnistan vs Mariehamn
4:2
Jun 13, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Mariehamn vs Gnistan
0:3
Jan 30, 2026 Liiga Cup
Gnistan vs Mariehamn
2:2
Aug 9, 2025 Veikkausliiga
Mariehamn vs Gnistan
2:5
May 3, 2025 Veikkausliiga
Gnistan vs Mariehamn
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mariehamn Compare

Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Gnistan Compare

Top Goalscorer Costa M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Latonen J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mariehamn 34 / 100
Gnistan 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mariehamn Gnistan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.40 goals per match.

Gnistan let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Solid form: Mariehamn remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Mariehamn's goal record stands at 52% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Mariehamn VS Gnistan
0.38 Goals Scored 1.75
2.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Mariehamn

(Home)
31 Aug
Mariehamn
2 : 0
Jaro
23 Aug
KuPS
2 : 4
Mariehamn
15 Aug
Mariehamn
2 : 0
SJK
09 Aug
Ilves
2 : 0
Mariehamn
01 Aug
TPS
3 : 0
Mariehamn
Page 1 of 6

Gnistan

(Away)
31 Aug
Gnistan
1 : 1
TPS
23 Aug
HJK
2 : 3
Gnistan
17 Aug
Gnistan
3 : 2
Ilves
07 Aug
SJK
2 : 2
Gnistan
01 Aug
Gnistan
0 : 1
KuPS
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 KuPS 22 12 7 3 38:23 43
2 Inter Turku 22 11 9 2 29:16 42
3 HJK 22 11 4 7 36:27 37
4 Gnistan 22 10 6 6 36:29 36
5 AC Oulu 22 10 4 8 25:25 34
6 VPS 22 9 6 7 29:22 33
7 Lahti 22 9 5 8 26:19 32
8 TPS 22 8 7 7 28:23 31
9 Ilves 22 7 4 11 34:37 25
10 SJK 22 4 7 11 25:33 19
11 Jaro 22 3 6 13 18:44 15
12 Mariehamn 22 3 5 14 17:43 14
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Relegation - Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)