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Mariehamn vs Ilves - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Finland Finland

Veikkausliiga Wiklöf Holding Arena, Mariehamn
Mariehamn Logo

Mariehamn

Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Ilves Logo

Ilves

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Mariehamn host Ilves in the Veikkausliiga. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Mariehamn have averaged 1.03 scored and 1.69 conceded recently, against Ilves's 1.73 scored and 1.27 conceded. Past meetings favor Ilves slightly — 1-2-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Aug 9, 2026, ending 2:0. The numbers (1.31 xG vs 1.25) point toward Ilves. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Mariehamn
15%
Draws
49%
Ilves
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ilves

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Ilves have won more games recently than Mariehamn.
  • Model gives Ilves a 49% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Mariehamn Clean Sheet 19%
Ilves Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mariehamn Ilves
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 7 15
Draws 5 6
Losses 17 12
Goals Scored 1.03 1.73
Goals Conceded 1.69 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Ilves vs Mariehamn
2:0
Apr 18, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Mariehamn vs Ilves
2:2
Mar 14, 2026 Club Friendly
Ilves vs Mariehamn
0:0
Aug 31, 2025 Veikkausliiga
Ilves vs Mariehamn
2:1
Apr 27, 2025 Veikkausliiga
Mariehamn vs Ilves
3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mariehamn 24 / 100
Ilves 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mariehamn Ilves

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ilves Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:8
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ilves has conceded goals in 67% of their last 33 outings.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Solid form: Mariehamn remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Mariehamn's goal record stands at 55% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Mariehamn VS Ilves
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mariehamn

(Home)
18 Sept
SJK
2 : 1
Mariehamn
12 Sept
Mariehamn
1 : 0
TPS
08 Sept
Lahti
2 : 1
Mariehamn
31 Aug
Mariehamn
2 : 0
Jaro
23 Aug
KuPS
2 : 4
Mariehamn
Page 1 of 6

Ilves

(Away)
03 Oct
Ilves
3 : 0
Haka
19 Sept
TPS
0 : 3
Ilves
12 Sept
Ilves
3 : 1
Lahti
08 Sept
Ilves
2 : 0
Jaro
31 Aug
Ilves
1 : 2
HJK
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
7 Lahti 25 10 6 9 30:24 36
8 Ilves 25 10 4 11 42:38 34
9 TPS 25 8 8 9 28:27 32
10 SJK 25 5 9 11 28:35 24
11 Mariehamn 25 4 5 16 20:47 17
12 Jaro 25 3 8 14 20:48 17
Relegation - Veikkausliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Ykkosliiga 2027 (Main)