Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mariehamn vs TPS

Finland Finland

Veikkausliiga Wiklöf Holding Arena, Mariehamn
Mariehamn Logo

Mariehamn

1 - 0
FT
TPS Logo

TPS

Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Bergvik A.
35'
Sub
Larsson A. In: Jakobsen T.
Out: Larsson A.
60'
Sub
Vakiparta T. In: Veinbergs N.
Out: Vakiparta T.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Veikkausliiga game between Mariehamn and TPS finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mariehamn.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Mariehamn
30%
Draws
18%
TPS
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mariehamn

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and TPS come out ahead of Mariehamn on wins alone.
  • Mariehamn are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Mariehamn Clean Sheet 14%
TPS Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mariehamn TPS
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 12
Draws 5 8
Losses 17 10
Goals Scored 1.1 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.7 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Mariehamn vs TPS
1:0
Aug 1, 2026 Veikkausliiga
TPS vs Mariehamn
3:0
Apr 4, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Mariehamn vs TPS
1:1
Feb 11, 2026 Liiga Cup
Mariehamn vs TPS
1:1
May 28, 2025 Suomen Cup
Mariehamn vs TPS
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mariehamn Compare

Top Goalscorer Bergvik A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

TPS Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mariehamn 66 / 100
TPS 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mariehamn TPS

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mariehamn Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 7:3
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

TPS has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Solid form: Mariehamn remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Mariehamn scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Mariehamn VS TPS
1.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mariehamn

(Home)
18 Sept
SJK
2 : 1
Mariehamn
12 Sept
Mariehamn
1 : 0
TPS
08 Sept
Lahti
2 : 1
Mariehamn
31 Aug
Mariehamn
2 : 0
Jaro
23 Aug
KuPS
2 : 4
Mariehamn
Page 1 of 6

TPS

(Away)
19 Sept
TPS
0 : 3
Ilves
12 Sept
Mariehamn
1 : 0
TPS
08 Sept
TPS
0 : 0
SJK
31 Aug
Gnistan
1 : 1
TPS
23 Aug
TPS
0 : 0
Inter Turku
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
7 Lahti 25 10 6 9 30:24 36
8 Ilves 25 10 4 11 42:38 34
9 TPS 25 8 8 9 28:27 32
10 SJK 25 5 9 11 28:35 24
11 Mariehamn 25 4 5 16 20:47 17
12 Jaro 25 3 8 14 20:48 17
Relegation - Veikkausliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Ykkosliiga 2027 (Main)