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Marijampole City vs Garliava

Lithuania Lithuania

I Lyga 2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Marijampole City play Garliava in the I Lyga 2023. It looks like a close match. Recently, Marijampole City averaged 0.87 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. Garliava averaged 1.45 goals scored and 1.32 conceded. In past meetings, Marijampole City won 1, Garliava won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Aug 5, 2023 ended 1:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.17 for Marijampole City and 1.18 for Garliava. This points to a Garliava double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Marijampole City
15%
Draws
50%
Garliava
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Garliava

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Marijampole City picked up more points recently compared to Garliava.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.17 vs 1.18 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 62%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 83%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39%
Marijampole City Clean Sheet 20%
Garliava Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 75%
Second Half Goal 79%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marijampole City Garliava
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 10 13
Draws 2 6
Losses 18 12
Goals Scored 0.87 1.45
Goals Conceded 2.2 1.32

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 5, 2023 I Lyga
Marijampole City vs Garliava
1:3
Mar 18, 2023 I Lyga
Garliava vs Marijampole City
0:2
Feb 25, 2023 Club Friendly
Garliava vs Marijampole City
2:1
Nov 5, 2022 I Lyga
Marijampole City vs Garliava
0:1
Jul 2, 2022 I Lyga
Garliava vs Marijampole City
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marijampole City Compare

Top Goalscorer Bezarashvili V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Garliava Compare

Top Goalscorer Janusa K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mickevicius E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marijampole City 36 / 100
Garliava 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marijampole City Garliava

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Garliava or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.79
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Marijampole City attacking → ← attacking Garliava

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marijampole City scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

Garliava let in goals in 74% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Marijampole City went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Garliava lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

32 Points in last 5 45
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Transinvest30224483:2970
2BE1 NFA30175851:3056
3Nevezis Kedainiai30149747:3251
4Neptunas30149757:3351
5FK Babrungas30156960:4951
6FK Minija30156945:3751
7Riteriai 2301371049:3346
8Garliava30913843:3740
9Ekranas301161342:4939
10BFA Vilnius301081240:4138
11Marijampole City301121727:6435
12Siauliai 230961547:6633
13FK Kauno Zalgiris 230881440:4932
14FK Panevezys 230871545:5931
15Zalgiris 230771646:6628
16Jonava30432328:7615