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Marilia vs Fernandopolis Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A4 2019
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Marilia in this Paulista A4 2019 tie, finishing 2-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Marilia
20%
Draws
40%
Fernandopolis
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Marilia have won more games recently than Fernandopolis.
  • Model gives Marilia a 40% chance of winning this.
  • Marilia have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Marilia, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Marilia Clean Sheet 20%
Fernandopolis Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marilia Fernandopolis
Matches Played 32 32
Wins 15 9
Draws 9 2
Losses 8 21
Goals Scored 1.41 1.06
Goals Conceded 0.91 2.06
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 20, 2019 Paulista A4
Fernandopolis vs Marilia
1:1
Oct 11, 2019 Paulista A4
Marilia vs Fernandopolis
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marilia 76 / 100
Fernandopolis 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marilia Fernandopolis

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marilia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marilia found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (32 games).

Fernandopolis's defensive record shows goals conceded in 75% of 32 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Fernandopolis lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Marilia VS -
1.38 Goals Scored 0
0.38 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
0% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Marilia

(Home)
22 Aug
Gremio Prudente
1 : 0
Marilia
15 Aug
Marilia
0 : 1
Linense
11 Aug
Marilia
1 : 1
Bandeirante
01 Aug
Bandeirante
3 : 1
Marilia
26 Jul
Linense
3 : 1
Marilia
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Fernandopolis

(Away)
22 Jun
Fernandopolis
3 : 4
Olimpia FC
15 Jun
Tupa
2 : 0
Fernandopolis
09 Jun
Fernandopolis
0 : 4
Inter de Bebedouro
02 Jun
Fernandopolis
0 : 0
AEA Aracatuba
25 May
Tanabi
4 : 1
Fernandopolis
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Sao Jose EC 2
Marilia 4
Rio Branco SP 2
Fernandopolis 4
Francana 3
Flamengo SP 5
Assisense 0
Paulista 4
Semi-finals
Marilia 3
Fernandopolis 1
Flamengo SP 1
Paulista 4
Final
Marilia 3
Paulista 3