Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Marilia vs Francana

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A3 Estadio Bento de Abreu, Sao Paulo
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Lima L.
45' Event
Lima L.

AI Match Summary

Marilia in this Paulista A3 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Marilia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Marilia
15%
Draws
36%
Francana
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Marilia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Medium Confidence
  • Marilia have won more games recently than Francana.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 16.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Marilia Clean Sheet 20%
Francana Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marilia Francana
Matches Played 31 32
Wins 15 8
Draws 9 9
Losses 7 15
Goals Scored 1.25 1.17
Goals Conceded 0.5 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.17
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 1.67

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Paulista A3
Marilia vs Francana
2:0
Mar 9, 2025 Paulista A3
Francana vs Marilia
0:1
Sep 6, 2019 Paulista A4
Marilia vs Francana
1:0
Sep 1, 2019 Paulista A4
Francana vs Marilia
3:1
Mar 24, 2013 Paulista A3
Francana vs Marilia
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marilia Compare

Top Goalscorer Lima L.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Francana Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.65

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marilia 32 / 100
Francana 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marilia Francana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Marilia scored in 77% of their last 31 outings.

Francana let in goals in 72% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Francana lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Marilia VS Francana
1.25 Goals Scored 1.17
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.67
75% Over 1.5 83%
13% Over 2.5 67%
0% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Marilia

(Home)
01 Aug
Bandeirante
3 : 1
Marilia
26 Jul
Linense
3 : 1
Marilia
17 Jul
Marilia
1 : 0
Gremio Prudente
26 Apr
Portuguesa Santista
2 : 0
Marilia
22 Apr
Marilia
2 : 2
Portuguesa Santista
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Francana

(Away)
21 Mar
Marilia
2 : 0
Francana
15 Mar
Francana
3 : 0
Rio Claro
11 Mar
Uniao Sao Joao
2 : 1
Francana
08 Mar
Portuguesa Santista
1 : 0
Francana
04 Mar
Francana
1 : 3
Rio Preto EC
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portuguesa Santista 15 12 0 3 26:9 36
2 Marilia 15 9 5 1 23:6 32
3 Rio Preto EC 15 8 5 2 24:13 29
4 XV de Jau 15 8 3 4 16:11 27
5 Rio Claro 15 7 4 4 19:16 25
6 Uniao Barbarense 15 6 6 3 16:14 24
7 EC Sao Bernardo 15 6 5 4 22:15 23
8 Paulista 15 6 5 4 20:13 23
9 Uniao Sao Joao 15 6 4 5 16:15 22
10 Catanduva FC 15 5 6 4 16:15 21
11 Bandeirante 15 4 6 5 15:19 18
12 Rio Branco SP 15 4 4 7 13:24 16
13 Francana 15 3 1 11 13:22 10
14 Itapirense 15 2 3 10 14:26 9
15 Desportivo 15 1 5 9 8:25 8
16 Uniao Suzano 15 1 2 12 10:28 5
Promotion - Paulista A3 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista A4 2027 (Main)