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Marilia vs Rio Claro Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A3 Estadio Bento de Abreu, Sao Paulo
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Cirilo
64' Event
Lucas Cassiano
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Paulista A3 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Marilia
15%
Draws
64%
Rio Claro
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Rio Claro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

21% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Marilia lately — more wins on the board than Rio Claro.
  • 21% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 67.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Marilia Clean Sheet 68%
Rio Claro Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marilia Rio Claro
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 8
Draws 8 11
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.3 0.9
Goals Conceded 0.83 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.55 0.74
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 4, 2026 Paulista A3
Marilia vs Rio Claro
1:1
Feb 4, 2015 Paulista
Marilia vs Rio Claro
1:2
Mar 23, 2011 Paulista A2
Marilia vs Rio Claro
1:0
Feb 9, 2011 Paulista A2
Rio Claro vs Marilia
1:1
Apr 6, 2008 Paulista
Marilia vs Rio Claro
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marilia Compare

Top Goalscorer Cirilo
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.78

Rio Claro Compare

Avg xG / game 0.67
Avg xA / game 0.41

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marilia 41 / 100
Rio Claro 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marilia Rio Claro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marilia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marilia scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Rio Claro has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Away concern: Rio Claro has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Marilia VS Rio Claro
1.5 Goals Scored 0.6
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.6
75% Over 1.5 60%
38% Over 2.5 40%
25% Over 3.5 20%

Recent Form & Match History

Marilia

(Home)
22 Aug
Gremio Prudente
1 : 0
Marilia
15 Aug
Marilia
0 : 1
Linense
11 Aug
Marilia
1 : 1
Bandeirante
01 Aug
Bandeirante
3 : 1
Marilia
26 Jul
Linense
3 : 1
Marilia
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Rio Claro

(Away)
05 Apr
XV de Jau
2 : 0
Rio Claro
28 Mar
Rio Claro
0 : 1
XV de Jau
21 Mar
Rio Claro
3 : 1
Uniao Suzano
15 Mar
Francana
3 : 0
Rio Claro
11 Mar
Rio Claro
0 : 1
XV de Jau
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portuguesa Santista 15 12 0 3 26:9 36
2 Marilia 15 9 5 1 23:6 32
3 Rio Preto EC 15 8 5 2 24:13 29
4 XV de Jau 15 8 3 4 16:11 27
5 Rio Claro 15 7 4 4 19:16 25
6 Uniao Barbarense 15 6 6 3 16:14 24
7 EC Sao Bernardo 15 6 5 4 22:15 23
8 Paulista 15 6 5 4 20:13 23
9 Uniao Sao Joao 15 6 4 5 16:15 22
10 Catanduva FC 15 5 6 4 16:15 21
11 Bandeirante 15 4 6 5 15:19 18
12 Rio Branco SP 15 4 4 7 13:24 16
13 Francana 15 3 1 11 13:22 10
14 Itapirense 15 2 3 10 14:26 9
15 Desportivo 15 1 5 9 8:25 8
16 Uniao Suzano 15 1 2 12 10:28 5
Promotion - Paulista A3 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista A4 2027 (Main)