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Marine vs Chorley - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

National League North
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Rowe C. M.
27' Event
Calveley M.

AI Match Summary

Chorley in this National League North matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Chorley.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Marine
20%
Draws
29%
Chorley
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Marine

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Marine have won more games recently than Chorley.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Marine Clean Sheet 17%
Chorley Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marine Chorley
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 16 9
Draws 3 5
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.57 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.44
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 18, 2026 National League North
Marine vs Chorley
0:2
Apr 6, 2026 National League North
Marine vs Chorley
2:1
Dec 30, 2025 National League North
Chorley vs Marine
2:1
Apr 12, 2025 National League North
Chorley vs Marine
0:0
Nov 16, 2024 FA Trophy
Chorley vs Marine
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marine Compare

Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Chorley Compare

Top Goalscorer Rowe C. M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Calveley M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marine 31 / 100
Chorley 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marine Chorley

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Marine scored in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Chorley conceded in 85% of 27 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Marine stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Marine VS Chorley
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Marine

(Home)
31 Oct
Buxton
4 : 2
Marine
27 Oct
Chester
2 : 1
Marine
24 Oct
Marine
1 : 1
Oxford City
17 Oct
Hartlepool
0 : 2
Marine
10 Oct
Marine
1 : 0
Spalding United
Page 1 of 6

Chorley

(Away)
31 Oct
Spennymoor
2 : 0
Chorley
27 Oct
Radcliffe
0 : 3
Chorley
24 Oct
Chorley
2 : 3
Buxton
20 Oct
Worcester
1 : 0
Chorley
17 Oct
Chorley
1 : 1
Worcester
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 South Shields 14 9 2 3 25:19 29
2 Oxford City 14 8 3 3 26:11 27
3 Macclesfield 13 8 3 2 21:11 27
4 Hereford 14 8 2 4 24:11 26
5 Buxton 15 8 2 5 30:25 26
6 King’s Lynn 15 7 3 5 25:21 24
7 Hednesford 15 7 3 5 24:20 24
8 Morecambe 14 7 2 5 21:12 23
9 Chester 14 7 2 5 17:14 23
10 Bedford 14 7 1 6 17:19 22
11 Spalding United 14 6 3 5 19:15 21
12 Chorley 14 6 2 6 23:23 20
13 Worksop 15 6 2 7 20:21 20
14 Hebburn Town 14 5 5 4 19:24 20
15 Telford 15 5 4 6 16:21 19
16 Brackley 15 5 4 6 18:26 19
17 Harborough 14 4 5 5 13:17 17
18 Marine 14 5 1 8 17:19 16
19 Merthyr Town 15 3 7 5 18:22 16
20 Radcliffe 15 5 1 9 19:27 16
21 Scarborough Athletic 14 4 3 7 19:20 15
22 Darlington FC 15 3 2 10 19:28 11
23 Southport 14 2 4 8 14:25 10
24 Spennymoor 14 2 4 8 14:27 10
Promotion - National League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)