Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Marine vs Merthyr Town

England England

National League North 2025/2026 Rossett Park, Crosby
Our Tip

Match Events

7'
Drysdale D.
9' Event
Maddox J.
68' Event
Maddox J.

AI Match Summary

Merthyr Town in this National League North 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Merthyr Town.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Marine
17%
Draws
13%
Merthyr Town
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Marine

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Marine have won more games recently than Merthyr Town.
  • Win probability leans Marine's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular National League North 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Marine Clean Sheet 13%
Merthyr Town Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marine Merthyr Town
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 10
Draws 4 4
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 1.63 2.13
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 14, 2026 National League North
Marine vs Merthyr Town
1:3
Aug 19, 2025 National League North
Merthyr Town vs Marine
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marine Compare

Top Goalscorer Fielding S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Merthyr Town Compare

Top Goalscorer Maddox J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Thomas J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marine 66 / 100
Merthyr Town 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marine Merthyr Town

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Merthyr Town let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Marine remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Marine's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Marine VS Merthyr Town
1.63 Goals Scored 2.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 100%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Marine

(Home)
31 Jul
Marine
2 : 0
Bootle
28 Jul
Marine
2 : 1
Warrington Town
25 Jul
Marine
3 : 0
Preston
21 Jul
Prescot Cables
0 : 1
Marine
14 Jul
Marine
2 : 0
Colwyn Bay
Page 1 of 6

Merthyr Town

(Away)
01 Aug
Worcester
1 : 0
Merthyr Town
28 Jul
Merthyr Town
3 : 0
Swansea
21 Jul
Merthyr Town
3 : 0
Briton Ferry
18 Jul
Merthyr Town
1 : 2
Forest Green
14 Jul
Merthyr Town
2 : 2
Yeovil
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1AFC Fylde4632410112:51100
2South Shields462811799:4395
3Kidderminster462512974:5187
4Macclesfield462471581:6879
5Buxton462271783:6173
6Scarborough Athletic4619161161:5273
7Chester4620131366:6473
8Merthyr Town462242095:8670
9Darlington FC462091778:6869
10Spennymoor4619111662:6968
11Telford4617141585:6565
12Marine461882062:7262
13Radcliffe461862276:8360
14Southport4616121864:7160
15Chorley4615121966:6557
16Worksop461692166:7457
17Oxford City4615112062:6756
18Bedford4613141966:7753
19King’s Lynn4612161856:6452
20Hereford4614102264:7952
21Curzon Ashton4613132067:8852
22Alfreton4612142049:8250
23Peterborough Sports461092751:9639
24Leamington46783141:9029
Promotion - National League (Main)
Promotion - National League North 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League North 2025/2026 (Play Offs)