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Marines vs AS Kigali

Rwanda Rwanda

Premier League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

AS Kigali in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored AS Kigali.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Marines
11%
Draws
9%
AS Kigali
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Marines

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Marines have won more games recently than AS Kigali.
  • Model gives Marines a 80% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and AS Kigali have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Marines Clean Sheet 68%
AS Kigali Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marines AS Kigali
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 10 7
Draws 9 12
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.63 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 17, 2026 Premier League
Marines vs AS Kigali
0:1
Oct 18, 2025 Premier League
AS Kigali vs Marines
1:0
May 27, 2025 Premier League
Marines vs AS Kigali
0:1
Nov 6, 2024 Premier League
AS Kigali vs Marines
1:2
Feb 18, 2024 Premier League
AS Kigali vs Marines
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marines 86 / 100
AS Kigali 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marines AS Kigali

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marines scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

AS Kigali let in goals in 63% of their last 32 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Marines went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Marines VS AS Kigali
1.63 Goals Scored 0.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Marines

(Home)
30 May
Marines
3 : 2
Muhanga
24 May
Marines
1 : 1
Musanze
16 May
Marines
2 : 3
Etincelles
09 May
Rayon Sport
2 : 1
Marines
06 May
Bugesera
0 : 4
Marines
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AS Kigali

(Away)
30 May
AS Kigali
2 : 1
Musanze
22 May
Rutsiro
2 : 1
AS Kigali
15 May
AS Kigali
2 : 1
Gicumbi
10 May
APR
2 : 1
AS Kigali
06 May
Gorilla
2 : 1
AS Kigali
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al-Hilal Omdurman34236574:2575
2APR341911450:2868
3Al-Merreikh341611741:2459
4Rayon Sport341414640:3056
5Kiyovu341314734:2153
6Police341216629:1952
7Mukura Victory Sports3412111136:3847
8Marines341291347:4345
9Bugesera341281434:3944
10Musanze3411101338:3743
11Gorilla3410101431:4240
12Gicumbi341081638:5438
13Etincelles347161132:4037
14AS Kigali348111527:3935
15Gasogi United348111529:4435
16Amagaju34981719:3835
17Muhanga34871925:4631
18Rutsiro346111730:4729
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2026/2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2026/2027 (Qualification)