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Maringa FC vs Ferroviaria - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Serie C Estádio Willie Davids, Maringá
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
08:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 3-2. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Little to choose between these two on current form. Maringa FC have averaged 1.57 scored and 1.32 conceded recently, against Ferroviaria's 1.2 scored and 0.83 conceded. Past meetings favor Maringa FC slightly — 3-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 4, 2026, ending 3:2. xG projections (0.94 - 1.19) back Maringa FC to edge this. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Maringa FC
30%
Draws
39%
Ferroviaria
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ferroviaria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Maringa FC at 1.57 per game, Ferroviaria at 1.2.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Maringa FC taking it.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Ferroviaria, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Maringa FC Clean Sheet 20%
Ferroviaria Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maringa FC Ferroviaria
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 13 13
Draws 8 10
Losses 7 7
Goals Scored 1.57 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.32 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Serie C
Maringa FC vs Ferroviaria
3:2
Jul 15, 2023 Serie D
Ferroviaria vs Maringa FC
1:2
May 13, 2023 Serie D
Maringa FC vs Ferroviaria
0:0
May 25, 2019 Serie D
Ferroviaria vs Maringa FC
0:1
May 18, 2019 Serie D
Maringa FC vs Ferroviaria
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maringa FC 42 / 100
Ferroviaria 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maringa FC Ferroviaria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Maringa FC scored in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Solid form: Maringa FC remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Defensive concern: Ferroviaria conceded in 53% of 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Maringa FC VS Ferroviaria
0.88 Goals Scored 1.63
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Maringa FC

(Home)
10 Oct
Maringa FC
2 : 0
Floresta EC
03 Oct
Santa Cruz
1 : 1
Maringa FC
26 Sept
Botafogo PB
0 : 0
Maringa FC
19 Sept
Maringa FC
2 : 0
Botafogo PB
12 Sept
Maringa FC
0 : 1
Santa Cruz
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Ferroviaria

(Away)
11 Oct
Ferroviaria
2 : 0
Internacional de Limeira
03 Oct
Paysandu PA
1 : 0
Ferroviaria
27 Sept
Brusque
1 : 1
Ferroviaria
20 Sept
Ferroviaria
3 : 2
Brusque
13 Sept
Ferroviaria
1 : 0
Paysandu PA
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Ferroviaria -
Maringa FC -