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Marinhense vs Fatima

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Gomes R.
39' Event
Undonque A.
90' Event
Silva T.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 game between Marinhense and Fatima finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Marinhense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%
Marinhense
20%
Draws
70%
Fatima
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Fatima

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Very High Confidence
  • Marinhense have managed 0.63 goals a game lately — Fatima are scoring more at 0.88.
  • Model gives Fatima a 70% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Marinhense Clean Sheet 22%
Fatima Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marinhense Fatima
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 8 8
Draws 10 8
Losses 13 14
Goals Scored 0.63 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Marinhense vs Fatima
2:1
Aug 24, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Fatima vs Marinhense
1:1
Feb 9, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Fatima vs Marinhense
1:0
Sep 29, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Marinhense vs Fatima
2:2
Mar 29, 2020 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Fatima vs Marinhense
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marinhense Compare

Top Goalscorer Gomes R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Undonque A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Fatima Compare

Top Goalscorer Silva T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marinhense 16 / 100
Fatima 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marinhense Fatima

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FAT Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fatima let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Marinhense scored in 58% of their last 31 games.

Recent resilience: Marinhense stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Marinhense VS Fatima
0.63 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Marinhense

(Home)
18 Apr
Oliveira Hospital
3 : 0
Marinhense
12 Apr
Marinhense
4 : 5
Lajense
04 Apr
Marinhense
1 : 1
SC Lusitania
29 Mar
Mortagua FC
1 : 0
Marinhense
22 Mar
Uniao Da Serra
1 : 0
Marinhense
Page 1 of 7

Fatima

(Away)
18 Apr
Fatima
4 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
12 Apr
Electrico FC
0 : 3
Fatima
04 Apr
Fatima
2 : 2
Vitoria Sernache
29 Mar
Fatima
0 : 2
Oliveira Hospital
22 Mar
Os Marialvas
2 : 0
Fatima
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Sernache 26 16 7 3 33:12 55
2 Oliveira Hospital 26 14 8 4 39:13 50
3 Naval 1893 26 14 6 6 36:23 48
4 SB Castelo Branco 26 14 4 8 43:26 46
5 Uniao Da Serra 26 12 8 6 38:27 44
6 Mortagua FC 26 11 6 9 23:26 39
7 Os Marialvas 26 10 6 10 33:28 36
8 Fatima 26 8 8 10 27:29 32
9 Lajense 26 8 8 10 37:37 32
10 GD Peniche 26 8 6 12 34:43 30
11 Samora Correia 26 8 5 13 27:35 29
12 Marinhense 26 5 9 12 20:38 24
13 Electrico FC 26 5 4 17 33:62 19
14 SC Lusitania 26 4 5 17 24:48 17
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)