Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Maritimo vs Benfica

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal Estádio do Marítimo, Funchal
Maritimo Logo

Maritimo

0 - 3
FT
Benfica Logo

Benfica

Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Barreiro L.
17'
Sub
Bah A. In: Kaminski J.
Out: Bah A.
40'
Danilovic V.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Benfica in this Liga Portugal matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Benfica.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Maritimo
20%
Draws
71%
Benfica
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Benfica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / High Confidence
  • Maritimo haven't matched Benfica's recent run of results.
  • Benfica are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Benfica here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Maritimo Clean Sheet 10%
Benfica Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maritimo Benfica
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 13 20
Draws 7 6
Losses 10 3
Goals Scored 1.13 2.72
Goals Conceded 1.17 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 2.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Liga Portugal
Maritimo vs Benfica
0:3
Mar 12, 2023 Liga Portugal
Maritimo vs Benfica
0:3
Sep 18, 2022 Liga Portugal
Benfica vs Maritimo
5:0
Apr 30, 2022 Liga Portugal
Maritimo vs Benfica
0:1
Dec 19, 2021 Liga Portugal
Benfica vs Maritimo
7:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maritimo Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Benfica Compare

Top Goalscorer Barreiro L.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Prestianni G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.33
Avg xA / game 1.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maritimo 14 / 100
Benfica 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maritimo Benfica

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Benfica Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Maritimo scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Benfica's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

Solid form: Maritimo remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Maritimo VS Benfica
1.13 Goals Scored 3.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Maritimo

(Home)
19 Sept
Gil Vicente
1 : 1
Maritimo
14 Sept
Moreirense
3 : 1
Maritimo
05 Sept
Maritimo
0 : 3
Benfica
29 Aug
Arouca
2 : 1
Maritimo
22 Aug
Maritimo
2 : 2
Academico Viseu
Page 1 of 6

Benfica

(Away)
16 Sept
AC Milan
0 : 2
Benfica
13 Sept
Benfica
3 : 1
Gil Vicente
09 Sept
Moreirense
0 : 4
Benfica
05 Sept
Maritimo
0 : 3
Benfica
31 Aug
Benfica
2 : 1
Estoril
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FC Porto 6 6 0 0 15:2 18
2 Benfica 6 5 1 0 21:4 16
3 Sporting CP 7 4 3 0 17:8 15
4 Santa Clara 6 4 2 0 11:4 14
5 Arouca 7 3 2 2 10:7 11
6 Estrela da Amadora 6 2 4 0 14:12 10
7 Braga 5 3 1 1 7:5 10
8 Gil Vicente 6 2 2 2 5:5 8
9 Academico Viseu 6 2 2 2 7:9 8
10 Alverca 7 2 2 3 9:11 8
11 Maritimo 7 2 2 3 8:12 8
12 Famalicao 7 1 4 2 9:7 7
13 Moreirense 6 2 1 3 7:13 7
14 Vitoria Guimaraes 6 1 1 4 4:7 4
15 Nacional 7 1 1 5 7:15 4
16 Rio Ave 7 1 1 5 5:15 4
17 Estoril 6 0 2 4 2:8 2
18 Casa Pia 6 0 1 5 1:15 1
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2027/2028 (Main)