Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Marquense vs Malacateco

Guatemala Guatemala

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Marquesa de la Ensenada, San Marcos
Our Tip

Match Events

13'
Sub
Ceballos M. In: Escobar M.
Out: Ceballos M.
46'
Sub
Cano J. In: Joj J.
Out: Cano J.
62'
Sub
de Leon F. In: Perez Ochoa C. A.
Out: de Leon F.

AI Match Summary

Marquense in this Liga Nacional 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Marquense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Marquense
20%
Draws
36%
Malacateco
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Marquense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Malacateco haven't matched Marquense's recent run of results.
  • 44% — that's where the model lands on Marquense taking it.
  • Regular Liga Nacional 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Marquense Clean Sheet 68%
Malacateco Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marquense Malacateco
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 8
Draws 4 6
Losses 14 15
Goals Scored 1.1 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marquense vs Malacateco
1:0
Jan 22, 2026 Liga Nacional
Malacateco vs Marquense
2:1
Nov 2, 2025 Liga Nacional
Malacateco vs Marquense
2:1
Aug 25, 2025 Liga Nacional
Marquense vs Malacateco
4:1
Apr 27, 2025 Liga Nacional
Marquense vs Malacateco
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marquense Compare

Top Goalscorer Casas D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Malacateco Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marquense 50 / 100
Malacateco 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marquense Malacateco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marquense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marquense's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Malacateco has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Marquense has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Marquense VS Malacateco
0.63 Goals Scored 1.38
2 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Marquense

(Home)
24 Aug
Marquense
2 : 1
Coban Imperial
16 Aug
Suchitepequez
1 : 2
Marquense
08 Aug
Deportivo Mixco
1 : 0
Marquense
03 Aug
Marquense
1 : 2
Municipal
25 Jul
Antigua
3 : 1
Marquense
Page 1 of 6

Malacateco

(Away)
24 Aug
Malacateco
2 : 0
Deportivo San Pedro
16 Aug
Comunicaciones
4 : 2
Malacateco
08 Aug
Malacateco
2 : 2
Xelaju
02 Aug
Guastatoya
4 : 0
Malacateco
26 Jul
Malacateco
1 : 1
Coban Imperial
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Xelaju 22 11 6 5 34:19 39
2 Municipal 22 11 5 6 32:21 38
3 Deportivo Mixco 22 10 6 6 30:26 36
4 Comunicaciones 22 11 2 9 28:26 35
5 Antigua 22 9 7 6 34:29 34
6 Coban Imperial 22 8 8 6 29:22 32
7 Guastatoya 22 8 7 7 29:21 31
8 Marquense 22 9 3 10 25:29 30
9 Mictlan 22 7 6 9 25:36 27
10 Malacateco 22 6 4 12 19:25 22
11 Aurora F.C. 22 4 8 10 14:30 20
12 Deportivo Achuapa 22 5 4 13 17:32 19
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)