Sport Picks
Match Events
40'
40'
Vinicius Baiano
48'
48'
Vitinho
86'
86'
Vitinho
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 0-3. The second leg ended 0-3.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
47%
30%
23%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Marsa
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Marsa haven't matched Naxxar Lions's recent run of results.
- Model gives Marsa a 47% chance of winning this.
- Naxxar Lions arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Naxxar Lions, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 14.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Marsa Clean Sheet 20%
Naxxar Lions Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Marsa | Naxxar Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 30 |
| Wins | 5 | 12 |
| Draws | 7 | 6 |
| Losses | 19 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.35 | 1.57 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.48 | 1.23 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 4, 2026 FA Trophy
Marsa vs Naxxar Lions
0:3
Sep 6, 2022 Challenge League
Naxxar Lions vs Marsa
2:0
Jan 31, 2021 Challenge League
Naxxar Lions vs Marsa
0:3
Nov 8, 2020 Challenge League
Marsa vs Naxxar Lions
4:1
Apr 28, 2019 Challenge League
Naxxar Lions vs Marsa
5:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Marsa Compare
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.74
Naxxar Lions Compare
Top Goalscorer Vitinho
2 Goals Assists Leader Vinicius Baiano
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.12
Avg xA / game 0.68
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Marsa 76 / 100
Naxxar Lions 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Marsa Naxxar Lions
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Marsa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Naxxar Lions's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.
These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.
Marsa scored in 77% of their last 31 games.
Recent resilience: Marsa stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Marsa VS Naxxar Lions
1.71 Goals Scored 0.88
1.57 Goals Conceded 1.25
86% Over 1.5 75%
71% Over 2.5 50%
29% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Marsa
(Home) 18 Apr
Zebbug
1 : 1 Marsa
11 Apr
Marsa
5 : 0 Mtarfa
01 Apr
Zurrieq
2 : 1 Marsa
14 Mar
Santa Lucia
0 : 1 Marsa
08 Mar
Marsa
3 : 3 Gudja
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11 Apr
Marsa
5 : 0 Mtarfa
08 Mar
Marsa
3 : 3 Gudja
05 Mar
Marsa
0 : 3 Birzebbuga
28 Feb
Marsa
1 : 2 Mgarr
21 Feb
Marsa
2 : 2 Vittoriosa
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Naxxar Lions
(Away) 20 Sept
Naxxar Lions
3 : 1 Zebbug
12 Sept
Pieta
3 : 2 Naxxar Lions
10 May
Naxxar Lions
0 : 1 Mosta FC
02 May
Marsaxlokk
3 : 2 Naxxar Lions
26 Apr
Gzira
0 : 0 Naxxar Lions
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12 Sept
Pieta
3 : 2 Naxxar Lions
02 May
Marsaxlokk
3 : 2 Naxxar Lions
26 Apr
Gzira
0 : 0 Naxxar Lions
19 Apr
Hamrun
3 : 0 Naxxar Lions
04 Apr
Gzira
2 : 1 Naxxar Lions
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Tarxien -
TBD -
TBD -
Ghajnsielem -
Pembroke -
TBD -
TBD -
Valletta -
Hamrun -
TBD -
Victoria Hotspurs 3
Xaghra 1
Fgura -
TBD -
Sirens 1
Santa Lucia 2
Birkirkara -
TBD -
TBD -
Victoria Wanderers -
Pieta -
TBD -
TBD -
Mtarfa -
Floriana -
TBD -
TBD -
Marsaxlokk -
Zabbar -
TBD -
Melita 0
Xewkija 1
St. Andrews 3
Vittoriosa 0
TBD -
Gzira -
Hibernians -
TBD -
TBD -
Gudja -
Zebbug 0
Qala Saints 5
TBD -
Mgarr -
Mosta FC -
TBD -
TBD -
Mqabba FC -
Zurrieq -
TBD -
TBD -
Kercem Ajax -
Qormi 1
Balzan FC 4
Nadur 1
Birzebbuga 4
Sliema -
TBD -
TBD -
Swieqi -
Marsa -
TBD -
TBD -
Naxxar Lions -
1/16-finals
Tarxien 4
Ghajnsielem 0
Pembroke 0
Valletta 1
Hamrun 5
Victoria Hotspurs 0
Fgura 2
Santa Lucia 1
Birkirkara 3
Victoria Wanderers 1
Pieta 5
Mtarfa 0
Floriana 1
Marsaxlokk 0
Zabbar 1
Xewkija 0
St. Andrews 0
Gzira 2
Hibernians 3
Gudja 1
Qala Saints 0
Mgarr 2
Mosta FC 2
Mqabba FC 1
Zurrieq 4
Kercem Ajax 0
Balzan FC 1
Birzebbuga 2
Sliema 1
Swieqi 2
Marsa 0
Naxxar Lions 3
1/8-finals
Tarxien 0
Valletta 1
Hamrun 5
Fgura 0
Birkirkara 2
Pieta 0
Floriana 0
Zabbar 1
Gzira 3
Hibernians 2
Mgarr 0
Mosta FC 3
Zurrieq 3
Birzebbuga 0
Swieqi 2
Naxxar Lions 4
Quarter-finals
Valletta 3
Hamrun 1
Birkirkara 2
Zabbar 1
Gzira 2
Mosta FC 1
Zurrieq 1
Naxxar Lions 2
Semi-finals
Valletta 3
Birkirkara 1
Gzira 2
Naxxar Lions 1
Final
Valletta 2
Gzira 1
