Sport Picks

France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade Vélodrome

Marseille

3 - 1

Rennes

Our Tip

Match Events

Hojbjerg P.

Assist: Greenwood M.

10'

Gouiri A.

46'

Sub

Szymanski S. In: Embolo B.

Out: Szymanski S.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between Marseille and Rennes finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Marseille.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%

Marseille

28%

Draws

22%

Rennes

Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Marseille

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Look at the last few games and Rennes come out ahead of Marseille on wins alone.
Marseille are the model's pick here, at 50%.
Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
These two have met 5 times recently and Marseille have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%

Marseille Clean Sheet 11%

Rennes Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Marseille	Rennes
Matches Played	30	29
Wins	14	17
Draws	4	3
Losses	12	9
Goals Scored	1	2.25
Goals Conceded	1.38	1.38
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Ligue 1

Marseille vs Rennes

Possession: 42% - 57% Cards: 0 - 0

3:1

Feb 3, 2026 Coupe de France

Marseille vs Rennes

Possession: 54% - 59% Cards: 2 - 0

3:0

Aug 15, 2025 Ligue 1

Rennes vs Marseille

Possession: 43% - 47% Cards: 4 - 0

1:0

May 17, 2025 Ligue 1

Marseille vs Rennes

Possession: 53% - 50% Cards: 0 - 2

4:2

Jan 11, 2025 Ligue 1

Rennes vs Marseille

Possession: 48% - 50% Cards: 2 - 0

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marseille Compare

Top Goalscorer Hojbjerg P.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Gouiri A.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Rennes Compare

Top Goalscorer Lepaul E.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 2.05

Avg xA / game 1.25

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marseille 47 / 100

Rennes 22 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Marseille Rennes

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAR Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Marseille's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Rennes has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Marseille has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Marseille VS Rennes

1 Goals Scored 2.25

1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38

75% Over 1.5 88%

50% Over 2.5 88%

13% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	PSG	34	24	4	6	74:29	76
2	Lens	34	22	4	8	66:35	70
3	Lille	34	18	7	9	52:37	61
4	Lyon	34	18	6	10	53:40	60
5	Marseille	34	18	5	11	63:45	59
6	Rennes	34	17	8	9	59:50	59
7	Monaco	34	16	6	12	60:54	54
8	Strasbourg	34	15	8	11	58:47	53
9	Toulouse	34	12	9	13	47:46	45
10	Lorient	34	11	12	11	48:51	45
11	Paris FC	34	11	11	12	47:50	44
12	Brest	34	10	9	15	43:55	39
13	Angers	34	9	9	16	29:48	36
14	Le Havre	34	7	14	13	32:44	35
15	Auxerre	34	8	10	16	34:44	34
16	Nice	34	7	11	16	37:60	32
17	Nantes	34	5	9	20	29:52	24
18	Metz	34	3	8	23	32:76	17