Sport Picks
Marseille vs Newcastle Utd
Europe
Champions League 2025/2026 Stade Vélodrome, Marseille 
Match Events
3'
3'
Balerdi L.
6'
6'
Barnes H.
20'
20'
Willock J.
AI Match Summary
Marseille in this Champions League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Marseille.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
0%
15%
85%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Newcastle Utd
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
85%
/ Very High Confidence
- Newcastle Utd haven't matched Marseille's recent run of results.
- Win probability leans Newcastle Utd's way, sitting at 50%.
- Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 3 times recently and Marseille have taken 2 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Marseille Clean Sheet 13%
Newcastle Utd Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Marseille | Newcastle Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 12 | 11 |
| Draws | 3 | 5 |
| Losses | 15 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.47 | 1.53 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.7 | 1.83 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.75 | 1.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Nov 25, 2025 Champions League
Marseille vs Newcastle Utd
2:1
May 6, 2004 Europa League
Marseille vs Newcastle Utd
2:0
Apr 22, 2004 Europa League
Newcastle Utd vs Marseille
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Marseille Compare
Top Goalscorer Aubameyang P.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88
Newcastle Utd Compare
Top Goalscorer Barnes H.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Marseille 22 / 100
Newcastle Utd 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Marseille Newcastle Utd
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Newcastle Utd Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Newcastle Utd conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.
Marseille scored in 73% of their last 30 games.
Games between these two average 1.67 goals.
Newcastle Utd lost 1 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Marseille VS Newcastle Utd
1.75 Goals Scored 1.75
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Marseille
(Home) 20 Sept
Marseille
1 : 2 PSG
17 Sept
Besiktas
4 : 1 Marseille
11 Sept
Rennes
1 : 0 Marseille
06 Sept
Marseille
2 : 3 Paris FC
30 Aug
Monaco
2 : 0 Marseille
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Marseille
1 : 2 PSG
06 Sept
Marseille
2 : 3 Paris FC
21 Aug
Marseille
4 : 0 Strasbourg
14 Aug
Marseille
1 : 2 Atl. Madrid
09 Aug
Marseille
3 : 1 Ath Bilbao
Page 1 of 4
Newcastle Utd
(Away) 19 Sept
Newcastle Utd
2 : 1 Hull City
14 Sept
Leeds
4 : 1 Newcastle Utd
08 Sept
Millwall
0 : 1 Newcastle Utd
05 Sept
Newcastle Utd
2 : 2 Bournemouth
29 Aug
Tottenham
0 : 2 Newcastle Utd
Page 1 of 6
14 Sept
Leeds
4 : 1 Newcastle Utd
08 Sept
Millwall
0 : 1 Newcastle Utd
29 Aug
Tottenham
0 : 2 Newcastle Utd
08 Aug
Valencia
1 : 2 Newcastle Utd
29 Jul
Bristol City
4 : 1 Newcastle Utd
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 23:4 | 24 |
| 2 | Bayern Munich | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 22:8 | 21 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 20:8 | 18 |
| 4 | Tottenham | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17:7 | 17 |
| 5 | Barcelona | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22:14 | 16 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17:10 | 16 |
| 7 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17:11 | 16 |
| 8 | Manchester City | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15:9 | 16 |
| 9 | Real Madrid | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 21:12 | 15 |
| 10 | Inter | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15:7 | 15 |
| 11 | PSG | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 21:11 | 14 |
| 12 | Newcastle Utd | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17:7 | 14 |
| 13 | Juventus | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 14:10 | 13 |
| 14 | Atl. Madrid | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17:15 | 13 |
| 15 | Atalanta | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10:10 | 13 |
| 16 | Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:14 | 12 |
| 17 | Dortmund | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 19:17 | 11 |
| 18 | Olympiacos Piraeus | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10:14 | 11 |
| 19 | Club Brugge | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15:17 | 10 |
| 20 | Galatasaray | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9:11 | 10 |
| 21 | Monaco | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:14 | 10 |
| 22 | Qarabag Agdam | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13:21 | 10 |
| 23 | Bodo/Glimt | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 24 | Benfica | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 10:12 | 9 |
| 25 | Marseille | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 11:14 | 9 |
| 26 | Pafos | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8:11 | 9 |
| 27 | Royale Union SG | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 28 | PSV | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 16:16 | 8 |
| 29 | Ath Bilbao | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:14 | 8 |
| 30 | Napoli | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:15 | 8 |
| 31 | FC Copenhagen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12:21 | 8 |
| 32 | Ajax | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 33 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10:21 | 4 |
| 34 | Slavia Prague | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5:19 | 3 |
| 35 | Villarreal | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5:18 | 1 |
| 36 | Kairat Almaty | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7:22 | 1 |
Promotion - Champions League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Champions League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)
