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Marseille vs Toulouse - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Ligue 1 Stade Vélodrome, Marseille
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Harit A.
Assist: Gouiri A.
19'
Sub
Emerson In: Garcia U.
Out: Emerson
25' Event
Gouiri A.
Assist: Paixao I.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 game between Marseille and Toulouse finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Marseille.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Marseille
20%
Draws
29%
Toulouse
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Marseille

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Marseille come out ahead of Toulouse on wins alone.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Marseille taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Marseille Clean Sheet 14%
Toulouse Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marseille Toulouse
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 9
Draws 1 8
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 1.52 1.27
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 1, 2026 Ligue 1
Marseille vs Toulouse
2:0
Mar 7, 2026 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Marseille
0:1
Mar 4, 2026 Coupe de France
Marseille vs Toulouse
2:3
Nov 29, 2025 Ligue 1
Marseille vs Toulouse
2:2
Apr 6, 2025 Ligue 1
Marseille vs Toulouse
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marseille Compare

Top Goalscorer Harit A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gouiri A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Toulouse Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marseille 66 / 100
Toulouse 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marseille Toulouse

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marseille Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 7:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toulouse let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Marseille's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Marseille went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Marseille VS Toulouse
1.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Marseille

(Home)
01 Nov
Marseille
2 : 0
Toulouse
25 Oct
Marseille
4 : 3
Le Havre
22 Oct
Sturm Graz
1 : 0
Marseille
18 Oct
Angers
2 : 5
Marseille
15 Oct
Marseille
0 : 1
Olympiacos Piraeus
Page 1 of 6

Toulouse

(Away)
01 Nov
Marseille
2 : 0
Toulouse
25 Oct
Toulouse
0 : 0
Troyes
16 Oct
Le Mans
0 : 3
Toulouse
10 Oct
Monaco
2 : 2
Toulouse
03 Oct
Toulouse
2 : 3
Pau
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSG 9 6 2 1 21:10 20
2 Lille 9 5 3 1 12:6 18
3 Lyon 9 5 2 2 15:7 17
4 Paris FC 9 5 2 2 16:10 17
5 Rennes 9 5 1 3 20:19 16
6 Marseille 9 5 0 4 20:13 15
7 Monaco 9 4 3 2 12:10 15
8 Nice 9 4 2 3 13:12 14
9 Lens 9 4 1 4 16:13 13
10 Brest 9 3 3 3 16:12 12
11 Lorient 9 3 3 3 7:8 12
12 Toulouse 9 2 4 3 12:13 10
13 Strasbourg 9 3 1 5 17:19 10
14 Auxerre 9 3 1 5 13:23 10
15 Angers 9 2 2 5 9:17 8
16 Troyes 9 2 2 5 7:16 8
17 Le Mans 9 1 4 4 11:18 7
18 Le Havre 9 0 2 7 9:20 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)