Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Martigues vs Pau

France France

Ligue 2 2024/2025 Stade Francis Turcan, Martigues
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Tlili K.
Assist: Hadjem Y.
39'
Sub
Bangre M. In: Diawara K.
Out: Bangre M.
45'
Kante

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 2 2024/2025 game between Martigues and Pau finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Martigues
35%
Draws
32%
Pau
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • Pau's 1.21 goals per match outpaces what Martigues have produced (1.2).
  • 32% — that's where the model lands on Pau taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Martigues Clean Sheet 21%
Pau Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Martigues Pau
Matches Played 25 28
Wins 9 9
Draws 3 6
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 1.2 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.73 1.11
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2025 Ligue 2
Martigues vs Pau
2:2
Sep 13, 2024 Ligue 2
Pau vs Martigues
3:0
Jul 30, 2024 Club Friendly
Pau vs Martigues
0:0
Apr 30, 2016 National 1 - Group C
Pau vs Martigues
3:2
Nov 28, 2015 National 1 - Group C
Martigues vs Pau
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Martigues Compare

Top Goalscorer Tlili K.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.33
Avg xA / game 0.86

Pau Compare

Top Goalscorer Diawara K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.62

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Martigues 29 / 100
Pau 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Martigues Pau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pau Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Martigues found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (25 games).

Pau has conceded goals in 68% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Martigues stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Pau
0 Goals Scored 1.13
0 Goals Conceded 2.25
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Martigues

(Home)
26 Jul
Martigues
1 : 1
AC Ajaccio
10 May
Lorient
5 : 1
Martigues
02 May
Martigues
1 : 1
Paris FC
25 Apr
Guingamp
2 : 1
Martigues
18 Apr
Caen
0 : 3
Martigues
Page 1 of 5

Pau

(Away)
18 Sept
Pau
2 : 0
Dunkerque
11 Sept
Montpellier
1 : 0
Pau
04 Sept
Pau
1 : 1
Sochaux
28 Aug
Rodez
2 : 2
Pau
21 Aug
Pau
0 : 1
Nancy
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lorient 34 22 5 7 68:31 71
2 Paris FC 34 21 6 7 55:33 69
3 Metz 34 18 11 5 64:34 65
4 Dunkerque 34 17 5 12 47:40 56
5 Guingamp 34 17 4 13 57:45 55
6 Annecy 34 14 9 11 42:43 51
7 Laval 34 14 8 12 44:38 50
8 Bastia 34 11 15 8 43:37 48
9 Grenoble 34 13 7 14 43:44 46
10 Troyes 34 13 5 16 36:34 44
11 Amiens SC 34 13 4 17 38:50 43
12 AC Ajaccio 34 12 6 16 30:42 42
13 Pau 34 10 12 12 39:53 42
14 Rodez 34 9 12 13 56:54 39
15 Red Star 34 9 11 14 37:51 38
16 Clermont 34 7 12 15 30:46 33
17 Martigues 34 9 5 20 29:56 32
18 Caen 34 5 7 22 31:58 22
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2024/2025 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2024/2025 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2024/2025 (Relegation)
Relegation - National 2025/2026 (Main)