Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Martina Calcio vs Heraclea

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Mastrovito M.
21' Event
De Angelis R.
25' Event
Mazzaroppi S.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 game between Martina Calcio and Heraclea finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Martina Calcio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Martina Calcio
15%
Draws
34%
Heraclea
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Martina Calcio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Martina Calcio carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Martina Calcio a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Martina Calcio Clean Sheet 20%
Heraclea Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Martina Calcio Heraclea
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 16 8
Draws 5 8
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 1.59 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Martina Calcio vs Heraclea
2:1
Dec 14, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Heraclea vs Martina Calcio
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Martina Calcio Compare

Top Goalscorer Mastrovito M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader De Angelis R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Heraclea Compare

Top Goalscorer Mazzaroppi S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Martina Calcio 49 / 100
Heraclea 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Martina Calcio Heraclea

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Martina Calcio Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Martina Calcio's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Heraclea let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Away concern: Heraclea has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Martina Calcio VS Heraclea
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Martina Calcio

(Home)
20 Sept
Martina Calcio
1 : 2
Virtus Francavilla
16 Sept
Real Normanna
1 : 2
Martina Calcio
13 Sept
Martina Calcio
2 : 0
Real Forio 2014
06 Sept
Turris
4 : 3
Martina Calcio
17 May
Martina Calcio
0 : 1
Paganese
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Heraclea

(Away)
10 May
SS Nola 1925
1 : 1
Heraclea
03 May
Heraclea
2 : 1
Ferrandina
26 Apr
Martina Calcio
2 : 1
Heraclea
19 Apr
Heraclea
1 : 3
Barletta
12 Apr
Pompei
2 : 1
Heraclea
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barletta 34 20 10 4 54:20 70
2 Martina Calcio 34 18 8 8 47:30 62
3 Citta di Fasano 34 18 8 8 51:35 62
4 Paganese 34 17 7 10 36:32 58
5 A.C.D. Nardo 34 14 13 7 40:27 55
6 Gravina 34 16 7 11 50:40 55
7 Afragolese 34 13 10 11 45:46 49
8 Fidelis Andria 34 13 9 12 35:28 48
9 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 12 10 45:40 48
10 Real Normanna 34 10 13 11 27:26 43
11 Francavilla 34 11 10 13 39:38 43
12 Manfredonia 34 11 10 13 34:39 43
13 Sarnese 34 9 14 11 51:49 41
14 SS Nola 1925 34 11 8 15 42:50 41
15 Heraclea 34 10 8 16 31:39 38
16 Pompei 34 9 7 18 26:38 34
17 Ferrandina 34 7 9 18 21:43 30
18 Acerrana 34 3 5 26 20:74 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Out)