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Marupe vs AFA Olaine

Latvia Latvia

Nakotnes liga 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Sula M.
Assist: Cebotarjovs V.
45' Event
Sula M.
Assist: Korsaks K.
46'
Sub
Vinogradovs J. In: Zemlinskis A.
Out: Vinogradovs J.

AI Match Summary

The Nakotnes liga 2025 game between Marupe and AFA Olaine finished 5-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Marupe.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Marupe
20%
Draws
40%
AFA Olaine
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Marupe come out ahead of AFA Olaine on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Marupe's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Nakotnes liga 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Marupe have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Marupe Clean Sheet 19%
AFA Olaine Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marupe AFA Olaine
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 13 9
Draws 3 4
Losses 15 17
Goals Scored 1.61 1.7
Goals Conceded 1.48 3.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.60 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 25, 2025 1. Liga
Marupe vs AFA Olaine
5:1
Jun 29, 2025 1. Liga
AFA Olaine vs Marupe
1:4
Sep 29, 2024 1. Liga
AFA Olaine vs Marupe
5:1
May 25, 2024 1. Liga
Marupe vs AFA Olaine
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marupe Compare

Top Goalscorer Sula M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Oliynyk M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.23
Avg xA / game 0.8

AFA Olaine Compare

Top Goalscorer Pantelejevs K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marupe 85 / 100
AFA Olaine 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marupe AFA Olaine

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marupe Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AFA Olaine has conceded goals in 93% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.

Marupe found the back of the net in 65% of recent matches (31 games).

Marupe went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Marupe VS -
2 Goals Scored 0
1.5 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
88% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Marupe

(Home)
20 Sept
Marupe
0 : 0
Riga FC 2
12 Sept
Marupe
5 : 0
Tukums 2000 2
29 Aug
Marupe
0 : 2
Alberts JDFS
22 Aug
Valmiera
4 : 1
Marupe
15 Aug
Marupe
2 : 1
Super Nova 2
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AFA Olaine

(Away)
08 Nov
Rezekne
3 : 4
AFA Olaine
01 Nov
AFA Olaine
1 : 1
Leevon PPK
25 Oct
Marupe
5 : 1
AFA Olaine
18 Oct
AFA Olaine
3 : 0
Skanste
04 Oct
Riga FC 2
7 : 2
AFA Olaine
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ogre United 26 18 4 4 66:20 58
2 Alberts JDFS 26 17 7 2 60:24 58
3 Riga Mariners 26 18 4 4 74:34 58
4 JFK Ventspils 26 11 10 5 40:29 43
5 RFS 2 26 11 8 7 46:31 41
6 Skanste 26 11 7 8 36:39 40
7 Leevon PPK 26 10 6 10 40:40 36
8 Marupe 26 10 2 14 30:33 32
9 Rezekne 26 8 7 11 36:57 31
10 FK Smiltene 26 8 4 14 46:48 28
11 Riga FC 2 26 6 6 14 35:43 24
12 Tukums 2000 2 26 7 2 17 37:60 23
13 AFA Olaine 26 6 4 16 39:88 22
14 Augsdaugavas 26 3 5 18 19:58 14
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