Sport Picks

Latvia

Nakotnes liga

Marupe

2 - 3

Valmiera

Our Tip

Match Events

Dembele M.

Assist: Stepanovs V.

60'

Sadovnikovs R.

60'

Sadovnikovs R.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Nakotnes liga game between Marupe and Valmiera finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Valmiera.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

Marupe

11%

Draws

80%

Valmiera

Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Valmiera

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence

Look at the last few games and Valmiera come out ahead of Marupe on wins alone.
Win probability leans Valmiera's way, sitting at 80%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 88%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 44%

Over 4.5 Goals 20%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%

Marupe Clean Sheet 10%

Valmiera Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Marupe	Valmiera
Matches Played	30	28
Wins	13	16
Draws	2	3
Losses	15	9
Goals Scored	1.75	2.25
Goals Conceded	1.63	0.88
Expected Goals (xG)	1.75	2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.63	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Nakotnes liga

Marupe vs Valmiera

Possession: 52% - 58% Cards: 4 - 4

2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marupe Compare

Top Goalscorer Oliynyk M.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Krievins R.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.35

Avg xA / game 0.88

Valmiera Compare

Top Goalscorer Dembele M.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Lopes G.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 2.05

Avg xA / game 1.25

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marupe 10 / 100

Valmiera 74 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Marupe Valmiera

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VAL Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 5.00 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Marupe scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Valmiera conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: Marupe stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Marupe VS Valmiera

1.75 Goals Scored 2.25

1.63 Goals Conceded 0.88

88% Over 1.5 88%

75% Over 2.5 50%

38% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FK Metta	12	10	1	1	42:11	31
2	Valmiera	12	9	2	1	32:12	29
3	Riga Mariners	12	8	4	0	25:10	28
4	Leevon PPK	12	7	3	2	20:15	24
5	Alberts JDFS	12	6	2	4	25:20	20
6	Marupe	12	6	1	5	22:15	19
7	Super Nova 2	12	5	4	3	19:17	19
8	Riga FC 2	12	5	1	6	19:22	16
9	Skanste	12	4	1	7	20:24	13
10	JFK Ventspils	12	2	4	6	15:20	10
11	RFS 2	12	2	3	7	15:26	9
12	Tukums 2000 2	12	2	2	8	16:31	8
13	Rezekne	12	1	2	9	10:36	5
14	FK Smiltene	12	0	4	8	12:33	4