Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Marupe vs Valmiera

Latvia Latvia

1. Liga
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Dembele M.
Assist: Stepanovs V.
60'
Sadovnikovs R.
60'
Sadovnikovs R.

AI Match Summary

The 1. Liga game between Marupe and Valmiera finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Valmiera.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

14%
Marupe
15%
Draws
71%
Valmiera
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Valmiera

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Valmiera come out ahead of Marupe on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Valmiera's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Marupe Clean Sheet 10%
Valmiera Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marupe Valmiera
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 11 21
Draws 2 2
Losses 18 5
Goals Scored 1.35 3.07
Goals Conceded 1.65 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 2.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 1. Liga
Valmiera vs Marupe
4:1
Apr 18, 2026 1. Liga
Marupe vs Valmiera
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marupe Compare

Top Goalscorer Oliynyk M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Krievins R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Valmiera Compare

Top Goalscorer Dembele M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lopes G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.36

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marupe 10 / 100
Valmiera 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marupe Valmiera

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Valmiera Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 5.00 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Marupe scored in 61% of their last 31 outings.

Defensive concern: Valmiera conceded in 68% of 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: Marupe stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Marupe VS Valmiera
1 Goals Scored 3
1.88 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Marupe

(Home)
29 Aug
Marupe
0 : 2
Alberts JDFS
22 Aug
Valmiera
4 : 1
Marupe
15 Aug
Marupe
2 : 1
Super Nova 2
08 Aug
Marupe
0 : 1
Leevon PPK
01 Aug
Skanste
4 : 2
Marupe
Page 1 of 7

Valmiera

(Away)
30 Aug
Rezekne
1 : 6
Valmiera
22 Aug
Valmiera
4 : 1
Marupe
08 Aug
FK Smiltene
1 : 4
Valmiera
01 Aug
Valmiera
2 : 1
RFS 2
27 Jul
Valmiera
3 : 0
Riga FC 2
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Valmiera 18 15 2 1 54:16 47
2 FK Metta 18 15 2 1 77:14 47
3 Leevon PPK 18 13 3 2 33:21 42
4 Riga Mariners 18 12 5 1 40:17 41
5 Alberts JDFS 18 10 4 4 37:24 34
6 Marupe 19 8 1 10 29:32 25
7 Super Nova 2 19 6 6 7 26:28 24
8 Skanste 18 7 2 9 37:35 23
9 Riga FC 2 18 6 3 9 25:34 21
10 Tukums 2000 2 17 3 3 11 23:51 12
11 JFK Ventspils 17 2 6 9 19:29 12
12 RFS 2 18 3 3 12 24:51 12
13 FK Smiltene 18 2 4 12 21:53 10
14 Rezekne 18 1 2 15 14:54 5
Promotion - Virsliga 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Virsliga (Relegation)