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Mashal Muborak vs Nasaf Qarshi

Uzbekistan Uzbekistan

Super League Stadion Guzor
Wed, Jul 22, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mashal Muborak play Nasaf Qarshi in the Super League. Nasaf Qarshi are favorites here. Recently, Mashal Muborak averaged 0.52 goals scored and 1.55 conceded. Nasaf Qarshi averaged 1.15 goals scored and 1.36 conceded. In past meetings, Mashal Muborak won 1, Nasaf Qarshi won 4, and they drew 0. Their last match on Nov 8, 2025 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for Mashal Muborak and 1.38 for Nasaf Qarshi. This points to a Nasaf Qarshi double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Mashal Muborak
16%
Draws
58%
Nasaf Qarshi
Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Nasaf Qarshi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

84% / High Confidence
  • Mashal Muborak picked up more points recently compared to Nasaf Qarshi.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 1.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 61%
Over 2.5 Goals 43%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%
Mashal Muborak Clean Sheet 17%
Nasaf Qarshi Clean Sheet 17%
First Half Goal 55%
Second Half Goal 58%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mashal Muborak Nasaf Qarshi
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 5 9
Draws 3 11
Losses 21 13
Goals Scored 0.52 1.15
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.36
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 8, 2025 Super League
Nasaf Qarshi vs Mashal Muborak
1:2
Jun 20, 2025 Super League
Mashal Muborak vs Nasaf Qarshi
1:3
Oct 2, 2021 Super League
Mashal Muborak vs Nasaf Qarshi
0:1
Jul 9, 2021 Super League
Nasaf Qarshi vs Mashal Muborak
1:0
Oct 2, 2020 Super League
Nasaf Qarshi vs Mashal Muborak
4:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mashal Muborak 27 / 100
Nasaf Qarshi 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mashal Muborak Nasaf Qarshi

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nasaf Qarshi Win (2)
Secondary Pick Nasaf Qarshi & Under 3.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +44.6%
5.56
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.1%
2.70
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mashal Muborak attacking → ← attacking Nasaf Qarshi

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mashal Muborak scored in 41% of their last 29 games.

Nasaf Qarshi let in goals in 70% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Mashal Muborak went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Nasaf Qarshi lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

18 Points in last 5 38
0.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Neftchi Fargona1191125:328
2Pakhtakor1182122:1226
3Navbahor Namangan1162314:820
4Buxoro1162315:1120
5Bunyodkor1161413:1119
6Lok. Tashkent1152414:1417
7Andijan1151516:1116
8OKMK1144314:1416
9Nasaf Qarshi1135312:1114
10Xorazm Urganch113449:1313
11Qizilqum114168:1513
12Termez Surkhon1133511:1812
13Din. Samarkand1132617:2111
14Kokand 19121125410:1511
15Sogdiana1123619:259
16Mashal Muborak1100114:210