Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group E 2018/2019 Stadio Gianpiero Vitali

Follonica Gavorrano

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Massese play Follonica Gavorrano in the Serie D - Group E 2018/2019. Follonica Gavorrano are favorites here. Recently, Massese averaged 0.67 goals scored and 1.77 conceded. Follonica Gavorrano averaged 1.22 goals scored and 1.53 conceded. In past meetings, Massese won 2, Follonica Gavorrano won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 31, 2019 ended 1:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.42 for Massese and 1.18 for Follonica Gavorrano. This points to a Follonica Gavorrano double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%

Massese

19%

Draws

62%

Follonica Gavorrano

Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: Follonica Gavorrano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

90% / Very High Confidence

Massese picked up more points recently compared to Follonica Gavorrano.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.42 vs 1.18 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 72%

Over 2.5 Goals 46%

Over 3.5 Goals 28%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%

Massese Clean Sheet 20%

Follonica Gavorrano Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 65%

Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Massese	Follonica Gavorrano
Matches Played	30	32
Wins	1	9
Draws	8	9
Losses	21	14
Goals Scored	0.67	1.22
Goals Conceded	1.77	1.53

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 31, 2019 Serie D - Group E

Massese vs Follonica Gavorrano

Possession: 59% - 44% Cards: 1 - 3

1:3

Nov 25, 2018 Serie D - Group E

Follonica Gavorrano vs Massese

Possession: 60% - 56% Cards: 1 - 3

2:3

Jan 15, 2017 Serie D - Group E

Massese vs Follonica Gavorrano

Possession: 47% - 44% Cards: 3 - 1

0:2

Sep 11, 2016 Serie D - Group E

Follonica Gavorrano vs Massese

Possession: 58% - 51% Cards: 3 - 3

1:0

May 8, 2016 Serie D - Group E

Massese vs Follonica Gavorrano

Possession: 53% - 59% Cards: 3 - 4

1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Massese 21 / 100

Follonica Gavorrano 58 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Massese Follonica Gavorrano

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Follonica Gavorrano Win (2)

Secondary Pick Follonica Gavorrano & Under 3.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +72.7%

9.09

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15%

2.50

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Massese attacking → ← attacking Follonica Gavorrano

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Massese scored in 50% of their last 30 games.

Follonica Gavorrano let in goals in 84% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Massese went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Follonica Gavorrano lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

11 Points in last 5 36

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.25

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pianese	38	21	11	6	58:21	74
2	FC Ponsacco	38	20	13	5	61:27	73
3	Seravezza Pozzi	38	19	8	11	62:42	65
4	Follonica Gavorrano	38	18	10	10	49:34	64
5	Montevarchi	38	18	10	10	49:38	64
6	San Donato Tavarnelle	38	16	15	7	51:32	63
7	Ghiviborgo	38	16	12	10	50:37	60
8	Tuttocuoio	38	15	10	13	43:43	55
9	Prato	38	15	10	13	50:48	54
10	Cannara	38	12	15	11	33:38	51
11	Sporting Trestina	38	13	11	14	39:40	50
12	Aglianese Calcio	38	10	16	12	43:52	46
13	Real Forte Querceta	38	12	10	16	42:54	46
14	Sangiovannese	38	11	12	15	36:41	45
15	Bastia Calcio	38	12	9	17	45:56	45
16	Scandicci	38	11	10	17	44:53	43
17	Viareggio	38	8	13	17	42:50	37
18	UC Sinalunghese	38	8	13	17	30:54	37
19	Sangimignano Sport	38	8	12	18	22:51	36
20	Massese	38	2	10	26	26:64	16