Sport Picks

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Matanzas vs Mayabeque Guines

Cuba Cuba

Liga Nacional
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Matanzas play Mayabeque Guines in the Liga Nacional. Matanzas are favorites here. Recently, Matanzas averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.48 conceded. Mayabeque Guines averaged 0.61 goals scored and 2.18 conceded. In past meetings, Matanzas won 3, Mayabeque Guines won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 14, 2025 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.63 for Matanzas and 0.81 for Mayabeque Guines. This points to a Matanzas double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
Matanzas
18%
Draws
21%
Mayabeque Guines
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Matanzas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Matanzas picked up more points recently compared to Mayabeque Guines.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.63 vs 0.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 44%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Matanzas Clean Sheet 26%
Mayabeque Guines Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 61%
Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Matanzas Mayabeque Guines
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 8 3
Draws 6 4
Losses 15 21
Goals Scored 0.93 0.61
Goals Conceded 1.48 2.18
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 14, 2025 Liga Nacional
Mayabeque Guines vs Matanzas
3:0
May 3, 2025 Liga Nacional
Matanzas vs Mayabeque Guines
1:0
Apr 19, 2025 Liga Nacional
Mayabeque Guines vs Matanzas
1:1
Mar 8, 2025 Liga Nacional
Matanzas vs Mayabeque Guines
4:1
Mar 1, 2023 Liga Nacional
Matanzas vs Mayabeque Guines
2:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Matanzas 60 / 100
Mayabeque Guines 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Matanzas Mayabeque Guines

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Matanzas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Matanzas & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.3%
1.89
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.7%
2.63
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Matanzas attacking → ← attacking Mayabeque Guines

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Matanzas scored in 59% of their last 29 games.

Mayabeque Guines let in goals in 89% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Matanzas went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Mayabeque Guines lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

30 Points in last 5 13
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1FC La Habana1173121:1224
2Artemisa1244418:1916
3Isla de La Juventud1132610:1611
4Pinar del Rio1023511:139
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1FC Cienfuegos1264220:1122
2FC Villa Clara1264216:722
3Matanzas1233610:1312
4Mayabeque Guines1223711:269
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Las Tunas1271420:1322
2FC Ciego de Avila1262416:920
3FC Camaguey1152417:1417
4FC Sancti Spiritus111373:206
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1FC Guantanamo1283125:627
2FC Santiago de Cuba1143412:1115
3FC Holguin1234512:1913
4CF Granma112279:228