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Stadium Background

Matera vs Manfredonia

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

61' Event
Burzio P.
79'
Forte F.
79'
Forte F.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 game between Matera and Manfredonia finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Matera.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Matera
35%
Draws
32%
Manfredonia
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Manfredonia have managed 0.87 goals a game lately — Matera are scoring more at 1.47.
  • 33% — that's where the model lands on Matera taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Matera have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Matera Clean Sheet 20%
Manfredonia Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Matera Manfredonia
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 10
Draws 10 9
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.47 0.87
Goals Conceded 1.6 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 26, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Matera vs Manfredonia
3:0
Sep 29, 2024 Serie D - Group H
Manfredonia vs Matera
0:3
Mar 17, 2024 Serie D - Group H
Matera vs Manfredonia
4:0
Nov 5, 2023 Serie D - Group H
Manfredonia vs Matera
1:3
May 4, 2014 Serie D - Group H
Matera vs Manfredonia
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Matera Compare

Top Goalscorer Burzio P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bello B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Manfredonia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.78
Avg xA / game 0.48

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Matera 49 / 100
Manfredonia 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Matera Manfredonia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Matera Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Matera found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Manfredonia conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

Matera has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS Manfredonia
0 Goals Scored 0.63
0 Goals Conceded 1
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Matera

(Home)
04 May
Matera
2 : 2
Nocerina
27 Apr
ASD Ugento
1 : 4
Matera
17 Apr
Matera
3 : 1
Angri
13 Apr
Matera
2 : 2
Virtus Francavilla
06 Apr
Costa Amalfi
4 : 2
Matera
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Manfredonia

(Away)
03 May
Acerrana
1 : 2
Manfredonia
26 Apr
Manfredonia
0 : 0
Fidelis Andria
19 Apr
A.C.D. Nardo
2 : 0
Manfredonia
12 Apr
Manfredonia
1 : 0
SS Nola 1925
02 Apr
Heraclea
1 : 1
Manfredonia
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Casarano 34 21 11 2 72:30 74
2 Nocerina 34 20 10 4 64:27 70
3 Martina Calcio 34 17 11 6 48:28 62
4 Fidelis Andria 34 16 9 9 41:29 57
5 Citta di Fasano 34 13 11 10 45:32 50
6 Matera 34 12 13 9 51:47 49
7 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 11 11 41:34 47
8 A.C.D. Nardo 34 13 8 13 47:45 47
9 Ischia 34 11 12 11 39:45 45
10 Palmese 1914 34 10 12 12 41:45 42
11 Gravina 34 11 9 14 43:46 42
12 Francavilla 34 11 8 15 28:34 41
13 Acerrana 34 11 8 15 37:50 41
14 ASD Ugento 34 10 7 17 33:51 37
15 Manfredonia 34 8 11 15 33:51 35
16 Brindisi 34 9 14 11 44:43 27
17 Angri 34 6 8 20 35:69 26
18 Costa Amalfi 34 3 11 20 26:62 20
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 (Play Out)