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Stadium Background

Matera vs Nocerina

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Casiello R.
14' Event
Felleca F.
26' Event
Cecere S.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Matera
35%
Draws
18%
Nocerina
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Matera

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Very High Confidence
  • Nocerina average 1.13 goals a game right now, well clear of Matera's 0.
  • 70% — that's where the model lands on Matera taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Matera Clean Sheet 20%
Nocerina Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Matera Nocerina
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 10 10
Draws 10 14
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 0 1.13
Goals Conceded 0 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Matera vs Nocerina
2:2
Dec 22, 2024 Serie D - Group H
Nocerina vs Matera
2:2
Mar 19, 2023 Serie D - Group H
Matera vs Nocerina
2:1
Nov 13, 2022 Serie D - Group H
Nocerina vs Matera
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Matera Compare

Top Goalscorer Casiello R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tazza S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Nocerina Compare

Top Goalscorer Felleca F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cecere S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Matera 67 / 100
Nocerina 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Matera Nocerina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Matera found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

H2H data points to 3.75 goals as a typical output.

Nocerina has conceded goals in 66% of their last 32 outings.

Recent resilience: Matera stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Nocerina
0 Goals Scored 1.13
0 Goals Conceded 1.63
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Matera

(Home)
04 May
Matera
2 : 2
Nocerina
27 Apr
ASD Ugento
1 : 4
Matera
17 Apr
Matera
3 : 1
Angri
13 Apr
Matera
2 : 2
Virtus Francavilla
06 Apr
Costa Amalfi
4 : 2
Matera
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Nocerina

(Away)
03 May
Nocerina
0 : 1
Ischia
26 Apr
Monastir
1 : 0
Nocerina
19 Apr
Nocerina
1 : 1
Flaminia
12 Apr
Atl. Lodigiani
0 : 0
Nocerina
02 Apr
Nocerina
0 : 0
Latte Dolce
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Casarano 34 21 11 2 72:30 74
2 Nocerina 34 20 10 4 64:27 70
3 Martina Calcio 34 17 11 6 48:28 62
4 Fidelis Andria 34 16 9 9 41:29 57
5 Citta di Fasano 34 13 11 10 45:32 50
6 Matera 34 12 13 9 51:47 49
7 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 11 11 41:34 47
8 A.C.D. Nardo 34 13 8 13 47:45 47
9 Ischia 34 11 12 11 39:45 45
10 Palmese 1914 34 10 12 12 41:45 42
11 Gravina 34 11 9 14 43:46 42
12 Francavilla 34 11 8 15 28:34 41
13 Acerrana 34 11 8 15 37:50 41
14 ASD Ugento 34 10 7 17 33:51 37
15 Manfredonia 34 8 11 15 33:51 35
16 Brindisi 34 9 14 11 44:43 27
17 Angri 34 6 8 20 35:69 26
18 Costa Amalfi 34 3 11 20 26:62 20
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 (Play Out)