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Mateszalkai MTK vs Tarpa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Hungary Hungary

NB III - Northeast
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
VS
11:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mateszalkai MTK host Tarpa in the NB III - Northeast. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Mateszalkai MTK have averaged 1.34 scored and 1.69 conceded recently, against Tarpa's 1 scored and 1.43 conceded. Past meetings favor Tarpa slightly — 0-1-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Aug 24, 2024, ending 2:1. Model xG sits at 1.50 vs 1.19, favoring Tarpa. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Mateszalkai MTK
15%
Draws
26%
Tarpa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Mateszalkai MTK

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Tarpa have managed 1 goals a game lately — Mateszalkai MTK are scoring more at 1.34.
  • 59% — that's where the model lands on Mateszalkai MTK taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Mateszalkai MTK Clean Sheet 20%
Tarpa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mateszalkai MTK Tarpa
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 7 7
Draws 4 8
Losses 18 13
Goals Scored 1.34 1
Goals Conceded 1.69 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 24, 2024 Hungarian Cup
Tarpa vs Mateszalkai MTK
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mateszalkai MTK 40 / 100
Tarpa 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mateszalkai MTK Tarpa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mateszalkai MTK Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mateszalkai MTK scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Tarpa has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Mateszalkai MTK remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mateszalkai MTK VS Tarpa
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Mateszalkai MTK

(Home)
10 Oct
Mateszalkai MTK
0 : 1
Cigand SE
03 Oct
Tiszaujvaros
2 : 2
Mateszalkai MTK
26 Sept
Mateszalkai MTK
2 : 1
Ozd-Sajovolgye
19 Sept
Eger
0 : 3
Mateszalkai MTK
12 Sept
Mateszalkai MTK
1 : 3
Kozarmisleny SE
Page 1 of 6

Tarpa

(Away)
03 Oct
Tarpa
1 : 2
Debrecen II
26 Sept
Tarpa
2 : 0
Nyiregyhaza II
19 Sept
Tarpa
1 : 2
Salgotarjani BTC
06 Sept
Tarpa
0 : 1
Tiszafuredi
30 Aug
Cigand SE
3 : 1
Tarpa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cigand SE 11 8 2 1 25:9 26
2 Ozd-Sajovolgye 10 8 0 2 32:8 24
3 Debreceni EAC 11 7 2 2 29:14 23
4 Godollo 11 6 1 4 17:12 19
5 Eger 11 5 2 4 13:22 17
6 Kisvarda FC II 10 4 5 1 15:11 17
7 Debrecen II 10 5 1 4 25:21 16
8 Fuzesabony 11 5 1 5 11:12 16
9 DVTK II 10 4 4 2 18:14 16
10 Mateszalkai MTK 11 4 4 3 17:15 16
11 Tiszaujvaros 10 4 1 5 12:13 13
12 Hajdunanas 10 3 1 6 17:27 10
13 Salgotarjani BTC 11 3 0 8 8:19 9
14 Tiszafuredi 11 3 0 8 6:18 9
15 Tarpa 10 2 0 8 8:22 6
16 Nyiregyhaza II 10 1 0 9 10:26 3
Promotion - NB III - Northeast (Promotion - Play Offs)