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Mathare United vs APS Bomet

Kenya Kenya

Premier League
Sat, Sep 19, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mathare United host APS Bomet in the Premier League. Chances could be at a premium in this fixture. Mathare United have averaged 1 scored and 1 conceded recently, against APS Bomet's 1.19 scored and 0.88 conceded. Head-to-head, Mathare United have won 0 to APS Bomet's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on May 10, 2026, ending 0:2. The numbers (0.69 xG vs 1.25) point toward APS Bomet. The model tips Under 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Mathare United
20%
Draws
52%
APS Bomet
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: APS Bomet

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and APS Bomet come out ahead of Mathare United on wins alone.
  • Model gives Mathare United a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 37%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Mathare United Clean Sheet 19%
APS Bomet Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mathare United APS Bomet
Matches Played 26 26
Wins 9 10
Draws 6 9
Losses 11 7
Goals Scored 1 1.19
Goals Conceded 1 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Premier League
Mathare United vs APS Bomet
0:2
Nov 9, 2025 Premier League
APS Bomet vs Mathare United
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mathare United 36 / 100
APS Bomet 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mathare United APS Bomet

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Mathare United scored in 65% of their last 26 outings.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Mathare United has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: APS Bomet conceded in 54% of 26 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Mathare United VS APS Bomet
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 0.25
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mathare United

(Home)
31 May
Mathare United
1 : 0
Bandari
23 May
Ulinzi Stars
2 : 1
Mathare United
16 May
Mara Sugar
0 : 1
Mathare United
10 May
Mathare United
0 : 2
APS Bomet
02 May
Sofapaka
2 : 2
Mathare United
Page 1 of 6

APS Bomet

(Away)
31 May
Tusker
1 : 1
APS Bomet
24 May
APS Bomet
2 : 1
Leopards
20 May
Bandari
0 : 2
APS Bomet
10 May
Mathare United
0 : 2
APS Bomet
06 May
APS Bomet
1 : 0
KCB
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mathare United 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Ulinzi Stars 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Tusker 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Mahia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Leopards 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 KCB 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
7 Posta Rangers 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
8 Bandari 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
9 Kakamega Homeboyz 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
10 Police FC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
11 Migori 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
12 Shabana 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
13 APS Bomet 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
14 Muranga 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
15 Mombasa United 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
16 Mara Sugar 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
17 Nairobi United 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
18 3K FC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Super League 2027/2028 (Main)