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Mathare United vs KCB

Kenya Kenya

Premier League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
45' Event
52' Event

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Mathare United and KCB finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward KCB.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Mathare United
15%
Draws
39%
KCB
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Mathare United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and KCB come out ahead of Mathare United on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Mathare United Clean Sheet 68%
KCB Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mathare United KCB
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 9 13
Draws 7 7
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 0.93 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2026 Premier League
Mathare United vs KCB
1:2
Sep 26, 2025 Premier League
KCB vs Mathare United
0:1
Feb 26, 2025 Premier League
KCB vs Mathare United
1:1
Nov 3, 2024 Premier League
Mathare United vs KCB
1:0
May 27, 2023 Premier League
Mathare United vs KCB
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mathare United 41 / 100
KCB 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mathare United KCB

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mathare United Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mathare United's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

KCB let in goals in 71% of their last 31 matches.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Mathare United went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mathare United VS KCB
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mathare United

(Home)
31 May
Mathare United
1 : 0
Bandari
23 May
Ulinzi Stars
2 : 1
Mathare United
16 May
Mara Sugar
0 : 1
Mathare United
10 May
Mathare United
0 : 2
APS Bomet
02 May
Sofapaka
2 : 2
Mathare United
Page 1 of 6

KCB

(Away)
14 Jun
KCB
0 : 2
Bandari
31 May
Shabana
1 : 2
KCB
27 May
Sofapaka
1 : 2
KCB
23 May
KCB
0 : 1
Posta Rangers
16 May
Tusker
1 : 0
KCB
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mahia 34 20 9 5 50:22 69
2 Leopards 34 19 7 8 44:28 64
3 Police FC 34 13 16 5 31:21 55
4 Nairobi United 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
5 Shabana 34 14 10 10 35:34 52
6 Kakamega Homeboyz 34 12 13 9 47:37 49
7 KCB 34 13 9 12 36:37 48
8 Muranga 34 13 8 13 42:41 47
9 Tusker 34 13 6 15 27:32 45
10 APS Bomet 34 11 11 12 37:35 44
11 Mara Sugar 34 10 14 10 30:30 44
12 Bandari 34 9 17 8 26:26 44
13 Ulinzi Stars 34 11 8 15 34:37 41
14 Mathare United 34 11 8 15 31:35 41
15 Posta Rangers 34 9 13 12 31:40 40
16 Kariobangi Sharks 34 8 14 12 30:33 38
17 Bidco United 34 5 12 17 19:40 27
18 Sofapaka 34 3 10 21 19:51 19
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Relegation - Super League 2026/2027 (Main)