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Mathare United vs Muranga

Kenya Kenya

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Haki V.
90' Event
Imbiakha J.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Mathare United and Muranga finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Muranga.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Mathare United
15%
Draws
48%
Muranga
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Muranga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Medium Confidence
  • Muranga carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Mathare United Clean Sheet 68%
Muranga Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mathare United Muranga
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 12
Draws 7 8
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.25 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Premier League
Muranga vs Mathare United
1:1
Jan 10, 2026 Premier League
Mathare United vs Muranga
0:2
Mar 2, 2025 Premier League
Muranga vs Mathare United
1:1
Dec 10, 2024 Premier League
Mathare United vs Muranga
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mathare United Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Muranga Compare

Top Goalscorer Haki V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Imbiakha J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mathare United 42 / 100
Muranga 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mathare United Muranga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Mathare United scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Muranga let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Mathare United remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mathare United VS Muranga
1 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mathare United

(Home)
31 May
Mathare United
1 : 0
Bandari
23 May
Ulinzi Stars
2 : 1
Mathare United
16 May
Mara Sugar
0 : 1
Mathare United
10 May
Mathare United
0 : 2
APS Bomet
02 May
Sofapaka
2 : 2
Mathare United
Page 1 of 6

Muranga

(Away)
31 May
Muranga
2 : 1
Mara Sugar
24 May
Bidco United
0 : 2
Muranga
17 May
Muranga
1 : 3
Mahia
10 May
Muranga
1 : 0
Kakamega Homeboyz
06 May
Police FC
2 : 1
Muranga
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mahia 34 20 9 5 50:22 69
2 Leopards 34 19 7 8 44:28 64
3 Police FC 34 13 16 5 31:21 55
4 Nairobi United 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
5 Shabana 34 14 10 10 35:34 52
6 Kakamega Homeboyz 34 12 13 9 47:37 49
7 KCB 34 13 9 12 36:37 48
8 Muranga 34 13 8 13 42:41 47
9 Tusker 34 13 6 15 27:32 45
10 APS Bomet 34 11 11 12 37:35 44
11 Mara Sugar 34 10 14 10 30:30 44
12 Bandari 34 9 17 8 26:26 44
13 Ulinzi Stars 34 11 8 15 34:37 41
14 Mathare United 34 11 8 15 31:35 41
15 Posta Rangers 34 9 13 12 31:40 40
16 Kariobangi Sharks 34 8 14 12 30:33 38
17 Bidco United 34 5 12 17 19:40 27
18 Sofapaka 34 3 10 21 19:51 19
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2026/2027 (Qualification)
Relegation - Super League 2026/2027 (Main)